Emergency Update: Palantir Price Target as Things Get Ugly

Yes, I have become known as "Wall Street's Palantir guy." That's why I am addressing you mid-day on Tuesday this. 

This note is going to be short and sweet. In Tuesday morning's "Market Recon" piece, I wrote that "Readers will see that as PLTR has sold off over the past four sessions, Relative Strength has come down from the stratosphere, while within the daily MACD, the 12-day EMA has crossed below the 26-day EMA, That's not usually a positive. As the stock approaches its 21-day EMA, we'll see what the swing crowd does.

"If they take profits, the stock could eventually test its 50-day SMA. Keep in mind that there remains an unfilled gap from early August that would need a tick as low as $161.40 to fill. In the meantime, even with the sales that I was forced to make (explained this morning) through both discipline and circumstance, this name remains the most heavily weighted position on my book and my target price remains $205."

Well...

That gap has now been filled, my friends. Tuesday's low is currently $161.12. Am I sure that Palantir will find support here? Of course not. We already saw the swing crowd take profits as the 21-day EMA was tested, which accelerated the sell-off. Now, I expect the stock to test its 50-day SMA (currently $152.30) from above. I will be a buyer from here on down to that level if the stock plays my game. I will be adding only an amount up to what I sold last week at an average of $185.60. That makes this maneuver a capital extraction, even if the sell-off goes beyond here I expect institutional investors to try to defend the name.

The Chart​

​Readers can see that the daily MACD is starting to get a little ugly. We're going to have to be tactical here, gang. Drop your rucksacks here. Just ammo, water, sidearms and blades. Let's go. 

I am a buyer from the green line down to the blue line. I may leave a little wiggle room, just in case the lower trendline of our Raff regression model does come into play. We've been in this name since single digits, kids, so yes, in order to play this game, we'll have to violate net basis. Are we scared? Fear is but for the wicked, so let the wicked temple before us. Move out.

My New Plan for Palantir

Target Price: $205 (reiteration)

Pivot: Not important today, but $190 (recent high).

Add: From the August 5 gap fill down to the 50-day EMA

Panic: Loss of 200-day SMA

At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long PLTR equity.