S&P 500 Sector ETFs at 12:17 PM

Side-by-Side Intraday Tech (XLK) vs. Financials (XLF)

Position: None

Position: None.

I have moved to medium-sized long (from small) in (PEP), (KMB) and (PG) this morning.

Positions: Long PEP M KMB M PG M

From Professor Scott Galloway No Mercy No Malice Coexistence or Confrontation?

Positions: None.

From Peter Boockvar:

So now people finally care?

So now people care about the bond bear market that I talk about just about every single week mentioning ever rising rates? Today the fresh 29 yr high in the 10 yr JGB yield finally matters? Today the fresh 18 yr high in the 10 yr UK gilt yield finally matters? Today the fresh 15 yr high in the 10 yr German bund yield finally matters? Today, the above 4.50% 10 yr note yield and a 30 yr 5.09% bond yield now matters? Only the most important input in the multiples of everything is interest rates after all. This said, we’ll see how we close but we’re reminded again that inflation is still a problem (BoJ still has its overnight rate at just .75%), debts and deficits matter (particularly in the UK) and sovereign bonds that are heavily owned by foreigners are now a source of funds.

Long end rates are now in control of monetary policy. I wish Kevin Warsh the best, I think he is the right man for this role with a great resume and plenty of market experience working with Stan Druckenmiller but he will still be subject to his surrounding macro circumstances.

10 yr JGB Yield

10 yr UK Gilt Yield

German 10 yr Yield

US 10 yr Yield

A key influence with another jump in JGB yields was their April PPI which spiked by 2.3% m/o/m, well more than the estimate of up .8% and the y/o/y gain is now 4.9% vs 2.9% in March.

Japanese PPI y/o/y

Still getting thru a lot of earnings calls, this was from ZipRecruiter last week:

“The CEO referred to “a sluggish hiring backdrop. In Q1, the quits rate and total hires stayed near their lowest levels since 2015, while job openings were down 3% y/o/y.”

Revenues fell 2% y/o/y and 4% q/o/q. “The y/o/y decrease was driven by a soft hiring environment, while the sequential decline reflects post holiday seasonality.”

“We’re in a subdued but relatively stable environment and that captures the mood of employers on both sides of the marketplace.”

From Viking Holdings that continues to benefit from boomer travel spend and whose stock rallied 6% yesterday:

“we are already 92% booked for 2026, which positions us very well for the remainder of the year. With 2026 mostly booked, our sales and marketing focus has shifted towards 2027, which has great momentum. The season is already 38% booked, with the capacity for our core product increasing by 15% over 2026.”

“Historically, when geopolitical events occur, we have seen a short-term softening in bookings as our guests take time to process the new developments. After the last earnings call, we experienced a temporary slowdown, mostly in river bookings, for the 2026 season. Demand has since rebounded, reflecting that travel remains a priority for our customers.”

Klarna had a good day yesterday, rising by 20% as Buy Now, Pay Later gains more popularity. They said this of note:

“Turning to credit quality, consumer delinquency rates remain healthy across both product lines…In Pay Later, our charge card equivalent product and our largest by volume, 30 day plus delinquency rates are stable and well managed. This is a short duration, high frequency book.”

“people use us for everyday spending needs, as well as for large ticket and medium sized ticket.”

From YETI that rallied 6% but still down on the week:

“we’ve entered the 2nd quarter with global demand trends showing strength, continuing momentum from the last two quarters…In this quarter, we saw broad based strength across categories and channels.”

“Across our core product platforms of drinkware and coolers equipment, performance was driven by the right assortment, augmented by innovation, and amplified by our omni-channel model.”

“Demand remained strong across wholesale, e-commerce, Amazon, and retail, partially offset by softness in corporate sales.” International sales were good too but also down in corporate sales.

From Applied Materials who had a great quarter but whose stock is trading down pre-market because of the global selloff:

“The momentum in our business is being driven by three key factors. First, the rapid global build-out of AI computing infrastructure. Second, Applied’s leadership positions in the most enabling and highest value areas of the market, particularly leading edge foundry, logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging. And third, strong execution across our operations and supply chain.”

In the April Cass Freight shipments report out yesterday which showed a .6% m/o/m increase but 4.4% y/o/y decline, this was a good summary of the state of the trucking industry, with an emphasis of higher prices:

“A supply-driven freight cycle doesn’t imply strong volumes, and with higher fuel prices sapping consumer spending, and rising interest rates sapping the housing market, this time is no different. Improving survey data, including a jump in the ACT For-Hire Volume Index, suggest our friends at medium and large dry van and reefer fleets are beginning to see significantly stronger demand, even as the broader market does not. The source of this early demand increase is primarily capacity reduction, which has accelerated this year due to an incipient driver shortage.”

“While the goods economy is providing little lift, the key question becomes, how bad will the driver situation get? In a word, worse. Truckload spot rates have risen materially in recent months as the ACT For-Hire Driver Availability Index has declined. This index was above 50, meaning a surfeit, rather than a shortage, from June 2022 to December 2025, 43 straight months. It fell to 30.4 in April. New FMCSA regulations have acted as a catalyst, and seem likely to result in tighter capacity and higher rates from here.

Here is a good chart from them, Spot Rate in black (green seasonally adjusted and highest since 2022) and the ACT For-Hire Driver Availability Index inverted:

The Atlanta Fed released its April Wage Growth Tracker which rose 3.8% y/o/y from 3.9% in March. Not much of a change but under the hood, pay for ‘job switchers’ grew by 3.8% y/o/y, down from 5% in March and 4.7% in the two months before that. For ‘job stayers’, pay rose 3.6% y/o/y vs 3.8% in March and 3.6% in February.

Bottom line, inflation is back higher at the same time wage growth is slowing and putting a further squeeze on the consumer.

Atlanta Fed’s Wage Tracker in white, CPI y/o/y in orange

Positions: None.

As noted in my Diary, my only sector (long) purchase in the last week has been in the defensive, consumer staples space – Pepsi (PEP), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Kimberly Clark (KMB).

Positions: Long PEP S PG S KMB S

Positions: None.

Upside:

-AUUD +76% (submits S-4 for merger with Thramann Holdings)

-MICC +11% (reportedly Blackstone and CD&R in early stages of exploring bids for company)

-PZZA +9.1% (largest franchisee considers joining Irth Capital in take private bid)

-FIG +8.3% (earnings, guidance)

-BOOT +5.1% (earnings, guidance)

-DXCM +5.1% (investor meeting guidance, comments)

-DTST +2.6% (earnings, color)

Downside:

-AARD -37% (plans to Unblind HERO and OLE Data to Inform Path Forward Following FDA Clinical Hold)

-LNZA -27% (files to sell $20M registered direct stock offering)

-IPWR -21% (prices ~5.29M shares for gross proceeds ~$30M)

-BW -12% (prices $200M common stock offering of 10.5M shares at $18.50/shr)

-NNVC -11% (enters registered direct offering for $2M gross proceeds)

-WOLF -11% (potential correction following Citrini Research report; Slate Path Capital reports 10% passive stake)

-POET -9.6% (files to sell 19.0M shares at $21.00/shr in $400M registered direct offering)

-FRMI -9.1% (Evercore ISI Institutional Equities Cuts FRMI to In Line from Outperform, price target: $11)

-RUM -8.0% (earnings, color)

-NMAX -6.9% (earnings, guidance)

-DGXX -6.7% (earnings, color)

-BTBT -6.1% (reports Q1 revenue)

-MRVL -6.0% (downside momentum)

-NU -5.4% (earnings, color)

-CBRS -4.4% (profit-taking following NASDAQ trading debut)

-VIK -3.2% (Morgan Stanley Cuts VIK to Equal Weight from Overweight, price target: $86)

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

Positions: None.

From Randorama:

Randy 12h ago

The board of directors of Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB) has declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.28 per share. The dividend is payable in cash on July 2, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on June 5, 2026.

Kimberly-Clark (KMB) has paid a dividend for 92 consecutive years and has increased its dividend for 54 consecutive years.

I added to my KMB long this week.

Position: Long KMB (S)

Wolf Street howls about HELOCs. 

Position: None

Wolf Streethowls about HELOCs. 

Position: None

* Added to index shorts: SPY at $747.51 and QQQ at $719.69

* Shorted AMD at $448.03, INTC at $116.31, MU at $786.10, NVDA at $236.81, SNDK at $1,415 and TSLA at $445.76.

* Added to these longs: PEP at $148.63, PG at $142.66 and KMB at $96.94.

Position: Long PEP (S), PG (S), KMB (S); Short SPY (S), QQQ (S), AMD (S), INTC (S), MU (S), NVDA (S), SNDK (S), TSLA (S)

I have moved from small to very small in the indices.

With S&P futures -77 handles I have covered some:

* SPY $740.98

* QQQ $709.65

I plan to re-short strength.

Position: Short SPY (VS), QQQ (VS)

The S&P Short Range Oscillator is now in neutral at 0.09% vs. 1.05%. 

Position: Short SPY (S), QQQ (S)