Why I'm Stalking a Large-Cap Tech Stock in This Ugly Market

Big Game or Small, Here's How to Go About Stalking a Trade

Market conditions are extremely poor again on Thursday with three losing stocks for each one advancing. The main problem is that President Trump keeps talking about having to finish the job in Iran and that makes the timing of an exit ramp very difficult. The longer this persists, the bigger the problem oil becomes. Oil is trading up and recent highs are in sight.

In my view, this is not an environment in which you want to do much buying. The focus should be on identifying stocks that you want to buy when conditions improve and a strategy for doing so.

There are a handful of large-cap technology names I am holding in core positions right now and plan to add to aggressively when the Iran situation finally finds an off-ramp. Typically these are the names that get the first big surge of buying when things shift because they are highly liquid and easy for large institutional and hedge funds to buy.

The main name I am focusing on is Alphabet (GOOGL) . I believe the fundamental case is cleaner and more compelling than it gets credit for in the current environment.

The entire AI sector is being hit without regard to any individual differences. GOOGL is trading well off its highs, dragged down by the same broad market pressure that has hit every growth stock over the past two weeks. That is precisely what makes it more interesting to me.

Search Threat Turned Out to Be a Search Tailwind

A year ago the dominant narrative around Alphabet was that AI was going to destroy Google Search. The argument had surface logic: If people get answers directly from an AI chatbot, why would they bother with a search engine? That narrative drove real anxiety among investors and put GOOGL in the penalty box for much of 2025.

It did not play out that way. AI is increasing engagement in Search, with management indicating that AI Overviews and AI Mode are driving higher search activity, including growth in commercially valuable queries. Search is not being cannibalized. It is being augmented, and the augmentation is producing more of exactly the kind of queries that generate advertising revenue.

Analysts now believe that as Google introduces ads directly into Gemini conversations in 2026, the company will unlock entirely new revenue streams that could offset any traditional search disruption.

The moat did not shrink. It widened.

Gemini Is the Real Story

What separates Alphabet from most of its large-cap peers right now is the trajectory of Gemini. The Gemini app has grown to over 750 million monthly active users, and Gemini models now process over 10 billion tokens per minute via direct API use. Those numbers reflect tremendous scale and put the wind of compounding behind it.

Gemini 3 now powers AI Mode in Search and the enterprise Gemini offering, which has reached 8 million paying licenses. The enterprise penetration is particularly important because it represents recurring revenue that diversifies Alphabet well beyond advertising.

Google Cloud is the other leg of the story. Cloud revenue surged 48% in the December quarter and is now running at an annual rate exceeding $70 billion. That is a business that would be a major standalone company on its own.

Management Has Earned the Benefit of the Doubt

One of the things I pay close attention to is how management teams handle guidance. Alphabet has consistently been conservative in setting expectations and then delivering results that exceed them. That pattern builds credibility over time, and it is one of the reasons the stock tends to recover sharply after selloffs. Investors have learned that the company tends to perform better than it says it will.

Annual revenues exceeded $400 billion for the first time in 2025, net income increased 30%, and EPS grew 31% to $2.82. Those are not the numbers of a company under competitive siege that is having margin issues. They are the numbers of a company that is executing extremely well across multiple business lines simultaneously.

How I Am Trading It

I am carrying a small core position in GOOGL right now and I am not in a rush to build it significantly larger given the current market environment. I may add a small amount on further weakness if the overall market continues to deteriorate but it will be very small and very patiently. The stock has pulled back with everything else and there is no way to know how much lower it goes before Iran gets resolved.

What I am confident about is what happens when that resolution comes. GOOGL will be among the first names institutional money moves back into because it is liquid, well understood, and the fundamental story is intact.

When Trump finally signals an off-ramp from the conflict, I intend to add to this position quickly and meaningfully. This is one of the names I want to own in size only when the tape turns. Some degree of chasing at that point carries far less risk than buying into the current black hole action.

At the time of publication, Rev Shark was long GOOGL.