Today on TV, No Bull
Sentiment is shifting. It's hard to find a bullish strategist willing to go on TV.
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The Market
What a difference a few days makes. It was almost hard to find a bull on television today.
I mean, one strategist who last week was citing this, that, and the other thing as bullish all of a sudden discovered that only a small percentage of stocks are making new highs along with the index. I guess cuz, you know, that wasn’t the case a week ago.
Away from the anecdotal, there was very little in the market today. Most stocks were flat to nowhere. Only the selling in software continues, and it continues on gaps down, continued selling in what has gapped down. It’s like that game Jenga, where they keep pulling out blocks, trying not to topple the tower.
And yet IGV, the ETF, thanks to its make-up, can’t break. I’m not even sure breaking 108 is a big deal, except that it would be the first lower low, but there is support all the way down to 101. A break of 108 would get some folks’ attention, but would probably mean they had finally decided to sell Oracle, Palantir, and Microsoft, since they are the biggest components.
There was no change in the indicators. There was no change in the charts.
Tomorrow we’ll see the CPI. The last several months have seen it come in less than expected. I look at the chart of TLT, and I don’t even have a sense of what it might be. I continue to think TLT is in a trading range. The low 80s is support and the low 90s is resistance, so if the CPI is higher than expected and TLT falls, I suspect we’ll be looking to buy it later in the week. If it is less than expected and the TLT rallies, I suspect we’d be looking at some profit taking if it can get to the low 90s.
New Ideas
There was a time that Paychex PAYX was a market darling. From the looks of the chart, it has not been one in a long time. But if this stock breaks down, that will be one giant top it has broken from.
Last week, I reviewed Travelers TRV as a follow-up since someone had asked about it (I said if it could cross that downtrend line, it was much improved). Now I’ve been asked about Progressive (PGR), another insurance company. Step back, and it looks like 240 is a big level; break that, and it’s not good. But what if it is building a small—tiny—head and shoulders bottom? You risk a few bucks (under 240 is not good) to possibly get a bottom?
Today’s Indicator
The 30-day moving average is not yet oversold. My estimate is that it is possible to get oversold in September. Possible.
Q&A/Reader’s Feedback
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Amazon AMZN has some decent support back in the 195-205 area. For the time being, that’s the area I would look at it again.
When I said I would take some profits in Coinbase COIN, I had no idea it was going to gap down a hundred points. Now I see resistance at 375 (if it can get there). Support is back in the 250-275 area. But mostly I would wait for a pattern to set up again, which is what I said when it was 425. The stock tends to set up well when the time is right. We have had much success trading this when the pattern is good.
USA Rare Earth USAR looks to me like it was a SPAC at some point and has traded a bit wildly since coming to market. The pattern I see is that it is making higher lows and higher highs, but the higher highs have very little follow-through. If it pulled back to the lower line, the risk/reward would be good.
NuScale Power SMR has some light support at 38 but much better around 32. I suspect even if it bounces off 38, it will make its way to that 32-33 area over time.
Energy Fuels UUUU hasn’t done anything wrong, but a stock that is up that much is not my cup of tea. Perhaps it is just flagging here, so you don’t want to see it break 8-8.50. Otherwise, wait for a pattern to set up.
Innodata INOD had better hold here. The next support is back in the 33-35 area, but breaking that long-term trend line would be negative for this stock.
Right now, the Hong Kong Stock market has some support at that 24500 area. I admit I am concerned that it broke out and didn’t go very far. If it breaks 24500 with any oomph, I will think this was a false breakout. Otherwise, I would say give it time, and it should improve.
