Time to Reduce RTX Exposure as Trump Looks to Wind Down Iran Conflict
The defense name is flashing some clear signals amid geopolitical changes.
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Trimming Raytheon
On December 23, 2025, I gave readers a Wall Street high target price of $217 on RTX Corp (RTX) , which is the old Raytheon Technologies.
I later increased that target to $240, which looks now to have been a bridge too far. On February 25, the stock closed at $195.98. The United States and Israel launched a coordinated strike against the regime in Iran on Saturday, February 28. On Tuesday, March 3, RTX apexed in response to the increased usage of its missiles and systems, at $214.50. a quick 9.5% run. After that, the stock struggled to hang on to its gains. and has given up virtually all of its wartime gains despite the fact that, regardless of what happens now, arsenals will have to be refilled.
Enter President Trump on Monday morning. The U.S. president posted to his Truth Social account:
"I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST."
The president added:
"I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS."
Clearly, the U.S. has an interest in cooling hostilities that have been expensive, cost lives and have rapidly rekindled both consumer level and producer level inflation. Clearly, one would think that whomever is calling the shots in Iran, if anyone actually is, as that nation's leadership and military have been completely decimated, would have an interest in halting the war as well.
I still believe in RTX. I still like RTX more so than the other high-end, primary defense contractors. That said, readers know that I am currently flat all equities for reasons soon to be remedied, but if I were still long RTX, or any stock that had been an obvious beneficiary of the energetic pace of this war, I would reduce exposure at this point.
In the case of RTX, this feeling is as much technical, as it is news-cycle based.
The Chart
Readers will see a rising-wedge pattern of bearish reversal that failed to produce a bearish reversal. Then readers will see an ascending triangle of bullish continuance that failed to produce a continuance of the bearish trend. Can't make this stuff up. A failed ascending triangle really bothers me, because I often trade off of those patterns when I see them and have had success in doing so.
Looking at the indicators, relative strength is now below what would be a neutral reading, while the MACD is sending overtly bearish signals. The histogram of the nine-day EMA is well into negative territory, while the 12-day EMA has crossed below the 26-day EMA and that spread is broadening. Perhaps scarier than everything else here is the fact that RTX crossed below its 200-day SMA on Thursday and is struggling to retake that line on Monday. A failure to maintain contact with that line would be problematic for managers with large equity exposure.
For these reasons, I would take something off of my RTX long if I still had it. If one wanted to maintain a certain percentage allocation to the name, that individual could look to repurchase the shares at a 6% to 8% discount or on momentum on a retaking of the 200-day line (which would likely be at a small loss).
Related: Trump Prompts Volatility With Shallow Attempt to Smooth Markets Amid Iran Conflict
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle had no positions in any securities mentioned.
