The Surprising Tesla-SpaceX Correlation Investors Can’t Ignore
Tesla and SpaceX share more than a CEO. Here’s what SpaceX’s lockup expiration could mean for Tesla stock.
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Wednesday, I closed out my Tesla (TSLA) long position. While I explained my reasoning, there’s an additional fact to consider, and owners of both Tesla and SpaceX (SPCX) should be aware of it.
Take a look at the correlation between SpaceX (left chart) and Tesla (right chart). Since SpaceX is a recent IPO, and thus has a brief price history, I used the hourly chart for this comparison.
It’s clear to me that there’s a correlation between these two stocks. Why would this be the case? It’s possible that the market is assuming they will one day merge.
Choosing Words Carefully
Elon Musk, CEO of both companies, has never publicly stated that he plans to merge Tesla and SpaceX. However, he was asked about a potential tie-up during Tesla’s post-earnings conference call last month, and his reply was interesting:
“As you can tell from the many collaborations on so many fronts with SpaceX, there’s more and more overlap. We can’t talk about, you know, combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call. It’s got to be done with the appropriate process.”
It seems to me that Musk is choosing his words very carefully here, which hasn’t always been his style. Perhaps his past experiences with the SEC have something to do with it.
A History of Mergers
Musk has a history of combining his companies. In 2016, he merged SolarCity into Tesla, and in 2025, he combined social media company X with xAI. He then merged xAI into SpaceX earlier this year. Considering Musk’s history, a merger of Tesla and SpaceX doesn’t seem far-fetched.
If that’s the case, then we have to consider the effect of lockup expirations on SpaceX shares, and how an increased supply of SpaceX shares on the market could affect Tesla.
Supply and Demand
After its initial public offering on June 26, the number of SpaceX shares available for purchase by the public — also known as the float — was about 555 million. Since then, it has increased to 639 million, due to post-settlement adjustments and fully cleared allotments.
That figure could climb by over 900 million shares this week, as some early investors and SpaceX employees will now be eligible to sell their holdings.
If this increase in supply isn’t met with a commensurate increase in demand for the shares, SpaceX is likely to move lower. If that happens, SpaceX could drag Tesla with it, since their charts are correlated.
This is just the first wave. Additional SpaceX lockup expirations are scheduled to occur in December 2026 and in mid-2027.
Bottom Line
I hope this further clarifies my reasoning for selling Tesla. I still believe the company has a bright future, but I don’t feel that now is the right time to own the stock.
At the time of publication, Ponsi had no positions in any securities mentioned.
