Tesla’s Self-Driving Software Could Hit the Brakes on Uber, Lyft Growth
As autonomous driving becomes a reality, will Uber be left behind?
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Shares of ride-share giant Uber (UBER) have gained over 28% this year. Uber shares were down slightly in 2024, but the stock climbed nearly 150% in 2023.
There could be bad news on the horizon for shareholders of Uber, Lyft (LYFT) , and other rideshare names. That’s because Tesla is about to get into the game in a big way.
The Tesla Threat
You may have noticed an uptick in social media posts about Tesla’s latest self-driving software update, FSD 14.2.2. That version is slowly rolling out to Tesla customers, and has been met with glowing reviews.
According to users, FSD 14.2.2 provides smoother behavior and fewer white knuckle experiences, but the best is yet to come. It’s estimated that FSD 14.3 will offer unsupervised self-driving, and it may come soon.
Last week, Tesla outperformed the competition during a blackout in San Francisco, as explained here.
Prediction Markets: Man Vs. Machine
According to prediction markets, Tesla’s unsupervised FSD will be available in the first half of this year. As of this writing, Polymarket indicates a 70% probability of unsupervised FSD by the end of March, and a 78% chance by the end of June.
Meanwhile, Kalshi is indicating an 80% probability by June. With unsupervised FSD, no human interaction will be needed to control the vehicle.
If Tesla’s latest iteration of FSD is all it’s cracked up to be, it’s going to create a major problem for Uber. Basically, Uber vs. Tesla’s Robotaxi will become a competition between humans and robots. The robots will be constantly upping their game, while the humans, well, are only human.
Uber’s Chart Shows Further Downside
Meanwhile, shares of Uber reached a six-month low this week. In the past three months, Uber has gone from an all-time high above $100 to breaking below its key 50-day (blue) and 200-day (red) moving averages.
A series of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) is now visible. The stock has been declining on above-average volume (shaded yellow), and its moving averages appear to be lining up for a bearish crossover (circled).
Meanwhile, San Francisco-based Lyft has managed to stay above its 200-day moving average, but could be in trouble just the same. A bearish rounded top formation has appeared (shaded yellow), and the stock is trading very near support (black dotted line). If Lyft breaks below $18.61, further downside becomes likely.
Bottom Line
Someday, we’ll be telling children that people used to pilot their cars without the aid of software. Tesla’s FSD 14.2.2 brings us closer to that day. Ultimately, it could be a game changer that marginalizes transportation that relies on human interaction.
At the time of publication, Ponsi was long TSLA.
