Tesla Stock Poised for Bounce Back Even if EV Sales Never Recover
Elon Musk's electric vehicle firm can return to form just as other companies mired in controversy have.
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The markets are off to a rough start in 2025. As we approach the end of the first quarter, all of the major U.S. stock indexes are in negative territory for the year. The major indexes are all trading below their respective 200-day moving averages, a sign of weakness.
Shares of Tesla TSLA have been punished, losing 37.7% year-to-date. While extensive damage to the Tesla brand is already priced into the stock, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Austin, Texas-based EV company fall below the $200 level.
How far could Tesla shares fall? There is a major support trendline stretching back to early 2023 (black dotted line). According to Tesla's chart, that trendline will provide support in the $180 area.
The situation for Tesla might seem hopeless now, but not long ago, another major brand was taking a beating. Brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev BUD came under fire two years ago due to a controversial social media promotion for one of its most popular brands, Bud Light.
Fast forward to 2025, and shares of Anheuser-Busch are outperforming the indexes by a wide margin, gaining 26.26% year-to-date.
While the current Tesla controversy is very different from the Anheuser-Busch fiasco, there are some parallels.
One similarity is diversification. AB InBev’s portfolio contains over 500 beer brands. It makes you wonder how many Bud Light boycotters merely exchanged one AB InBev brand for another.
Meanwhile, Tesla is thought of as an EV manufacturer that sells to the public, but it’s much more than that. There are many ways for Tesla to make money:
- CEO Elon Musk has indicated a willingness to license Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology to other automakers.
- The company has just been approved for a ride-share permit in California. Tesla's CyberCab is expected to be rolled out in Austin, Texas this summer.
- Tesla’s Optimus robot is expected to begin shipping in the second half of 2026. Musk believes Optimus could eventually generate $10 trillion in revenue.
- Tesla could market robots, cars, semi-trucks and buses directly to companies and government agencies.
This is just a partial list. Taking everything into consideration, it’s possible that Tesla could have a bright future, even if the company’s public EV auto sales never fully recover.
Tesla and AB InBev aren’t the only companies to be rocked by controversy. In 2010, BP’s BP Deepwater Horizon oil rig was responsible for the largest oil spill in U.S. history. In 2017, a viral video showed a paying customer being dragged from a United Airlines UAL flight, despite acknowledging that the man had done nothing wrong.
After the passage of time, those companies eventually recovered.
If Tesla is to recover, it will also take time. Meanwhile, Tesla’s current controversy could allow investors an opportunity to buy this stock below $200 — a price that might look amazing further down the road.
At the time of publication, Ponsi had no positions in any securities mentioned.
