SoFi Faces Huge Test as Constant Price Pressure Meets Unwavering Demand
An update on the financial services stock for concerned investors.
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If it seems like I am over-covering SoFi Technologies (SOFI) this month, it's because I am.
I have a lot at stake in this name, both with you folks, my readers, and financially, as the name remains my largest holding. I have written feature columns on the name on February 4 and February 9, as well as a semi-update on February 11. I owe you that much as this was my pick for the year and so far it's down 26.4% for 2026. Besides, enough readers have been concerned enough about SOFI to email me on the outside and ask for a new update.
On February 11, I wrote to you that I was adding down to the low of $19.19 from February 5 and I have been. On Thursday morning, the shares are not yet there but are approaching that level. At first, I had at least a notion that a double-bottom pattern of bullish reversal was forming. However, that level has now been tested for a fifth consecutive trading session, without breaking. Take a look:
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That level, where there has been support for five straight days, is key. While there has been constant pressure, there has also been unwavering demand. Who runs out of ammo first, we are likely to soon find out. Now, I am going to overlay a Fibonacci retracement model over the chart going back to summer 2024 when SOFI still truly was a "Stocks Under $10" stock.
This recent level where there has been a clash of will end up being the 50% retracement level (or "half-way back" point) of that August 2024 through November 2025 rally. We all know what happens at half-way back points, especially when there is a fight. Either the door opens after so many knocks, or the stock ends up rally sharply.
I now see potential for downside risk to the 61.8% retracement level just above $16. I will continue to add should that happen. You will certainly be made aware should I start to waver in my conviction, which I have not. The upside pivot is now the 200-day SMA at $23. This drops my medium-term target price from $36, which I told readers had to change, earlier this month to $29.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long SOFI
