Running in Circles on the S&P
Guess where the S&P closed a week ago vs. today? Also, Johnson & Johnson's been stuck, Coinbase can't be chased ... and where is Boeing going?
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The Market
Exactly one week ago, the S&P closed at 6,263. The S&P closed at 6,263 today. This is how the short-term overbought condition is getting worked off. The intermediate-term overbought condition is still overbought.
The market got saved again today with the Bank Index closing over that 140 level and the S&P bouncing right off 6200. But in the meantime, the number of stocks making new highs on July 9, the last time the S&P closed at 6263, was 83 for the NYSE and today that number was 48.
If we toggle back to July 9, we see the new lows were 11 and today they are 40. I think it is safe to say that while the big-cap index has churned there has been a lot going on under the hood, namely the selling in individual stocks has picked up in the last week.
Aside from that, not much else changed today. The bonds are hanging by a thread. The dollar finally had a down day (a dip would be helpful). And the SOX gave up all that it gained yesterday and is now just a handful of points higher than it was a week ago.
Right now the S&P has some resistance just over 6300 (from that line I drew in nearly two weeks ago) and support at 6200. That’s a pretty tight range.
New Ideas
Some of our down-and-outers had a good day today.
Johnson & Johnson JNJ had a terrific earnings pop, but it still hasn’t cleared that resistance that has been in place for three years now. Near term that’s resistance, but a breakout over it would give a long term measured target near $180.
A name I recommended quite some time ago has finally broken out. Rigetti Computing RGTI should fill that gap near $18 (arrow). The base measures to $20 so I’ll call it $18-$20. But in my view anytime a stock pops 30% I like to take a little off the table. Pigs get slaughtered.
By now you should know that I still like Boeing BA and have a target around $250. But I have had many questions on it and I will say it feels a bit over-extended. If it managed to pullback near $210, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Today's Indicator
The Volume Indicator made a lower high and is at 51%
Q&A/Reader’s Feedback
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Mongo OK: MongoDB MDB is an interesting chart. The small head-and-shoulders bottom it developed in the spring measures to the $260 area, which would fill that gap from March. As long as it doesn’t collapse under $200 it seems OK to buy.
Digesting SAP: I believe we looked at SAP SAP a few months ago, and I wanted it to digest the move and it has. It measures to the $330-$340 area
Switch on SPWR?: The solar stocks are so subject to the whims of whoever is in the White House. Complete Solaria SPWR is one of those. Notice that chart of Sunrun RUN we looked at the other day with all those gaps. Also I prefer not to write about one dollar stocks. That said, the stock looks oversold and if it can get over $2.20 maybe it can get going but keep in mind it tends to gap down.
Lockheed Has a Chance: Lockheed Martin LMT may be the only defense contractor that hasn’t rallied. As long as it stays over $450 it gets the benefit of the doubt to breakout to the upside.
Stale TOST Is Still Edible: I recall looking at Toast TOST a few months back with a bullish eye and I see it has done absolutely nothing. But it still looks OK, despite being the same price it was in late November. It has a measured target in the low $50s.
CRM's Risk Pitch: Salesforce.com CRM languishes. The best I can say about it is that the risk/reward isn’t bad because if it drops under $250 you know you’re wrong. Notice it hasn’t rallied from last week’s software shellacking.
Can't Chase the COIN: Coinbase COIN, which I recommended months ago (I believe it was May) has a measured target around $440. I, however, cannot chase it up here. It is up more than 10% in the month and keep in mind it is Crypto Week or some such thing. The DSI for Bitcoin did back off on yesterday’s dip but it hovers near 80. It’s just not my cup of tea to buy up here.
