Price Levels to Watch in 3 Key Semiconductor Stocks
How did the market do today? It was tech-centric. Here's what you need to know.
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The Market
It was a very tech-centric day. I wouldn’t call it narrow, but it certainly wasn’t broad. But that’s what this group rotation should look like.
The best way for me to show you this is that 66% of the volume was on the upside on the NYSE. That is pretty low for such a big up day. The McClellan Summation Index is heading down (it needs a net differential of +1000 advancers minus decliners on the NYSE to halt the decline). Yet Nasdaq’s Summation Index, where I use volume, is heading upward (it turned upward last week), and it now needs a net differential of +3.2 billion shares (up minus down volume) to halt the rise.
Sentiment simply got too bearish on tech/growth as witnessed by the options ratios. I wouldn’t make more out of it than that the Either/Or Market is still in effect.
Speaking of the options ratios, I was once again surprised to see the ISE call/put ratio for equities chime in under 2.0. Up until about a month ago, we’ve pretty much seen this with readings over 2.0 non-stop, and now we can barely get a reading over 2.0.
One other point to follow up on is that the three semiconductor stocks we looked at two days ago ( (AMD) , (NVDA) , and (AVGO) ) held into Tuesday morning’s whoosh, which to me solidifies those levels as key. I am not bearish on the semis the way it seems so many are now—or at least they don’t love them anymore. To reiterate the levels you don’t want to see break:
AMD 180-190
NVDA 170
AVGO 290-300.
New Ideas
About two weeks ago, I was a buyer of Amazon (AMZN) at 195, and while it rallied from there, the rally has been lethargic until today. Just a note to point out there is a gap fill around 220, and that tiny little bottom measures to 225-ish. It probably runs out of steam in that area on the first trip up there.
I was asked if KKR (KKR) is like a software stock two weeks ago, and I wouldn’t argue against it. It came down to last April’s low and bounced. I would start with a rally to resistance (97-98). It’s possible it maps out as I have drawn in blue. Right now, I would say just a trade.
Today’s Indicator
The Volume Indicator is—wait for it—at 52%. I wish I were making this up! If the 493 really do pull back some more, maybe we can get this back under 50% (and oversold)
Q&A/Reader’s Feedback
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I look at the chart of Alphabet (GOOGL) and can’t help wondering if it is building a top, but since I am currently in the camp that says tech should rally, I’ll stick with the view that there is decent support in the 270-290 area (better if it holds 290). It might just need some sideways digestion for a while.
Tesla (TSLA) continues to look like a trading range stock, but it did come to the bottom of the range, and therefore, I would think it can cross that line in the coming days/weeks.
Adobe (ADBE) should run into some resistance in that 290-300 area.
(EEM) is in the ‘493’ group that has corrected about ten percent in the last few days. I would like to see it form a W (so a rally to 60-62 and back down again to test the spike low), and then if there is some hysterics, that would make it even better.
(VGK) , an ETF to be long Europe, has had a big correction this week (see EEM chart above), and I would like to see it rally to 88-ish, then pull back again and rally again.
Reddit (RDDT) had a measured target around 130. There is a slight possibility it comes down to fill the gap at 125, but I think this has room to rally. I’m not sure it can get all the way to 180 resistance, but 160-165 is a good first test. So, let’s call it a range between 125-165.
Ondas (ONDS) is okay as long as it stays over 9-ish. So the risk/reward seems okay here.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) really annoyed me when it broke down two weeks ago because I really thought it would hold at 46. I think it can rally to 40-ish, then pull back and rally again, but getting back over 43 is going to be tough.
SAP (SAP) is a software stock that has not rallied much. If you want to play it for a catch-up trade, then the stop is under 190. The measured target was 190. There is a lower one around 150 if that 190 area breaks again.
If Roku (ROKU) can get into that 105-110 area, I think it runs into a lot of resistance up there. But notice something quite positive about it: unlike all those other growth/software stocks, it did not revisit the April 2025 lows.
