Ocular Therapeutix Gets Black Eye, But I See Stock Rising on New Drug
Here's why I'm planning to add on weakness.
You're reading 0 of 1 free page.
Register to read more or Unlock Pro — 50% Off Ends Soon
Estee Lauder's Beauty Is in the Eye of the Shareholder
Former "Stocks Under $10" name and Sarge-folio holding Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) has been hit hard this month. And it happened on no news. I wrote to you on March 4 after the company had discussed the results of a Phase 3 study of Axpaxil and then presented those results at the 49th Annual Meeting of the Macula Society.
Readers will recall that this study compared a single dose of Axpaxil (0.45 mg) to a single dose of aflibercept (2 mg) in patients afflicted with wet age-related Macular Degeneration. According to the trial, superiority endpoints met with 74.1% of patients dosed with Axpaxil vs. just 56.6% for patients dosed with aflibercept. In addition, 65.9% of patients maintained vision at week 52 with Axpaxil vs. just 44.8% with patients dosed with aflibercept. Axpaxil was also well-tolerated throughout the period.
Plans are, subject to feedback from regulators, to submit a new drug application or NDA, to the Food and Drug Administration for Axpaxil some time soon. If approved, this therapeutic would be the first drug of its kind made available to U.S. patients suffering from this condition.
Target Prices
OCUL closed at $8.87 on Thursday night, off 6.6% for the day. The stock is down 18.6% since I wrote that article. Those in the name alongside me, I am sure, are well aware that in that piece, I upped my target price from $13 to $18. I added that I was a buyer down to the February low of $6.19. I have put my money where my keyboard was and did add to my long position overnight.
I was not alone in being optimistic after that presentation. If I was duped, I had company. If I end up correct, I still have company. Also in early March, William Maughan of Clear Street increased his target price from $21 to $28, Biren Amin of Piper Sandler reiterated his $31 target price and Serge Belanger of Needham reiterated his $18 target price. Those analysts are all rated at five stars out of five by TipRanks. In addition, Tazeen Ahmad of Bank of America, who is rated at 3 stars, increased her target price from $24 to $27.
Related: New Ocular Therapeutix Price Target as Stock Prepares to Blow Through the Old One
The Chart
Readers will see that OCUL has now lost its 200-day simple moving average, 50-day simple moving average and 21-day exponential moving average after having retaken all of those lines ever so briefly in late February / early March.
The 21-day exponential moving average is probably the more important line for this stock technically as there likely is enough swing trader participation in this trade and probably not yet huge professional involvement. The daily moving average convergence divergence and relative strength are both as close to neutral as they can be. I continue to be long this name, without reservation, and intend to add at lower market prices into the commercialization of their Axpaxil candidate.
My Plan for Ocular
Target Price: $18 (reiteration)
Pivot: 200-day SMA (currently $11.11)
Add: Down to February low of $6.19
Panic: New post February 17th low
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long OCUL equity.
