New Taiwan Semiconductor Price Target and Game Plan After 'Iffy' News
With TSM shares clinging to 50‑day support, investors should now watch these key technical levels.
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Taiwan Semiconductor's Results Are Lifting the Shares of Several Portfolio Names
Taiwan's largest company and high-end foundry to all of the world's leading AI-capable chip designers, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported that 2026 sales growth is currently running at a 30% year-over-year pace. Awesome, right? Not so fast, gang. Consensus view had been for something closer to a 33% pace of growth.
Taiwan Semi has been aggressive and shifted capacity so it could be more productive for its higher margin customers. Those would be Nvidia (NVDA) , Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) for data centers and Apple (AAPL) . The problem is that shifting production has drained that capacity in the name of building out AI capacity but pulled it away from conventional CPUs and memory type chips.
Cold Winter
The business cooled significantly in February, down 20.8% from January, but still up 22.2% from February 2025. Taiwan's minister of economic affairs has stated that there are no concerns over a potential shortage of natural gas. The firm does not expect the war in the Middle East to impact the business but did commit to some sizable outlays.
Taiwan Semi appropriated $45 billion for fab construction in February to help increase capacity and upgrade its abilities to serve clientele requiring both specialty and mature technologies. The firm also distributed $1.2 billion to its U.S. subsidiary in Arizona.
Earnings
Taiwan Semi will report earnings in mid-April. The firm does not break out monthly sales in detail. It's very likely that the Chinese Lunar New Year, which fell in February this year, is what has impacted these numbers as much as anything else, especially since the month of January, in isolation, did not disappoint.
When will we know more? Mid-April? Of course. However, the real clue will come when March sales print. It is then that we find out if February was a holiday-impacted blip or the first dent in the armor in what would be a disappointing quarter.
Charts
On January 15, I last registered my $377 price target. On February 26, the stock apexed at $390.20. Of course, we always take something off when our targets are breached. That's the day that we increased our target price to $455.
This is how the chart looked that morning:
This is how that chart looks now:
Readers can see that the Andrews' Pitchfork model has broken. Readers can see a weaker-than-neutral reading for Relative Strength. Readers can see a rather bearish-looking daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD). Lastly, readers can see TSM hanging onto support at its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) by a thread.
My current plan is this. I am not adding on Tuesday's weakness. Should TSM lose that thin blue line, I will take more shares off of the position as that creates the possibility for a run at the 200-day SMA down at $279. I still believe in TSM, but I know that other professionals will bail if that 50-day SMA fails.
I am only up 10.2% on what is left of my position. I am not willing to risk such a thin profit. That said, I will add should TSM pass this test.
Below is my new game plan...
Taiwan Semiconductor Game Plan
Price Target: $410 (Down from $455)
Pivot: 21-day EMA (currently $357)
Add: Only on a move off of the 50-day SMA
Panic: Loss of the same 50-day SMA
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long TSM, NVDA, AMD, AAPL equity.
