New Starbucks Price Target as Shares Quietly Reach 52-Week High
Lower coffee prices and a strategic corporate move have the company in position to break two losing streaks.
You're reading 0 of 1 free page.
Register to read more or Unlock Pro — 50% Off Ends Soon
Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol
In 2026, markets have made little progress. The best-performing major U.S. stock index is the Russell 2000, with a gain of just 1%. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are all flat to slightly down for the year.
However, there are some winners out there. For example, Starbucks (SBUX) has quietly gained 20% since the start of this year.
Coffee Prices Are Falling
Why is Starbucks outperforming its peers and the broader market by a wide margin? One reason is the price of coffee itself. The coffee continuous futures contract shows that since September, coffee prices have declined by about 33%.
Why are coffee prices falling? Markets are anticipating a record crop from Brazil, which is expected to show a 17.2% increase in production compared to last year.
Brazil accounts for between 33% to 40% of the global coffee supply, making it the world’s largest coffee producer. Vietnam, the world’s second largest producer of coffee, is expected to see a production increase of 6% to 10%.
Starbucks Expands Operations to Tennessee
The Seattle, Washington-based coffee retailer is also moving part of its operations to Nashville, Tennessee, which will become the home of Starbucks’ corporate supply chain hub. Not only will this move place Starbucks closer to key suppliers, it could result in significant savings, via tax advantages and lower operating costs.
About to Break a Losing Streak?
Starbucks hasn’t been a great performer in recent years. In fact, shareholders have experienced negative returns over the past four years:
2022: -15.19%
2023: -3.22%
2024: -4.96%
2025: -7.70%
This could be the year that trend is broken. According to the chart, now that Starbucks has exceeded its 52-week high, the next major resistance point is $117 (black dotted line). That figure becomes our new target for the stock.
Starbucks has recently had a tough stretch regarding quarterly earnings. The company has missed earnings estimates on three quarterly reports, despite exceeding revenues estimates on each of those occasions.
That’s another losing streak that seems destined to end. Regarding coffee prices, supply and demand are working in Starbucks’ favor. The company’s Tennessee expansion is likely to result in greater flexibility, while providing cost savings. These factors have Starbucks trending in the right direction.
Related: As Europe Scrambles for Power, One Coal Stock Quietly Stands Out
At the time of publication, Ponsi was long SBUX.
