New Rocket Lab Price Target as 'Quadruple Bottom' Approaches

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I noticed that the technicals for one of my core portfolio names and one of my most prominent "Stocks Under $10" names had changed. Then I noticed that I had not yet covered this stock in March, which is odd, given that I try to stay high-touch on both the highly volatile names that I may have gotten folks involved with and the stocks where we have huge gains to protect. This stock is both of those. 

I write of Rocket Lab (RKLB)  this morning.

On Friday, February 27, the last trading day of February, I covered Rocket Lab's Q4 earnings that had been released the night prior. The stock was down 5% when I wrote that piece that morning after announcing a delay in the expected debut of its "Neutron" medium-lift rocket. The quarter reported was solid enough.

For the period ended December 31, 2025, Rocket Lab had posted a GAAP EPS of -$0.09 on revenue of $179.652 million. These numbers all beat expectations while that revenue print was good for year-over-year growth of 35.8%. In addition to an $816 million prime contract awarded to the firm by the Space Development Agency during the quarter, the firm had designed, built and operated twin spacecraft for NASA’s ESCAPADE mission to Mars and had been selected by the Missile Defense Agency for the Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) program.

Rocket Lab also launched three missions for Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron (HASTE) delivering hypersonic suborbital test launch capability in support of the Department of Defense's "Golden Dome" initiative. 

There was certainly cause for optimism. I reiterated my $94 target price for the shares at that time, but I did warn about a still incomplete head-and -soulders pattern of bearish reversal that had been forming.

Charts​

This is the chart that I drew up for readers on February 27. ​It's not too hard to see that the stock broke out of the head-and-shoulders pattern and started to move sideways as you and I moved into the month of March. Relative strength and the daily MACD have also stabilized. Now, here's where it gets fun:

​The head-and-shoulders pattern of bearish reversal has morphed into ​a double bottom pattern of bullish reversal with a $78 pivot. 

That pivot is running almost congruently with the stock's 50-day SMA, making that much more powerful should it either provide resistance or act as an upside accelerant. The fact is that the double bottom also almost runs in line with the lows within the old head and shoulders. This is not that far from being a quadruple bottom, which just means that there's a boatload of support in the $63 to $66 area. We do have to adjust our target if we are adjusting our pivot. That's in the Sarge-folio handbook.

Rocket Lab (RKLB)

Target Price: $98 (up from $94)

Pivot: $78 

Add: Down to $64 (recent low)

Panic: Loss of 200-day SMA ($55)

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At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long RKLB equity.