New Price Target for BlackRock Bitcoin ETF as Crypto Loses Momentum
If IBIT can close at this level as the Bitcoin price sees a post-election plummet, then a new trading range develops.
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2025 was supposed to be the year of crypto.
I realize it is still February, but we’re almost through two months, or one-sixteenth of the trading year, and crypto has lost its post-election momentum.
In all fairness, the tech high fliers have suffered their own nosedives, so this isn’t crypto-exclusive, but it reinforces the notion that crypto is both a risk-on trade and a source of liquidity when times get tough in tech.
The chart for BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust Beneficial Interest ETF IBIT can be misleading because Bitcoin trades 24/7 while the ETF chart will only provide traditional hours pricing. Take the gaps with a grain of salt, but they aren’t useless. Those gaps occurred during the election timeframe. They were fast moves, likely translating to tepid support in that price range. Although not a traditional gap, I view support as thin in those areas.
Tuesday's just above $50 provided a psychological support level as traders love round numbers, but I’m keeping my eye on $48. If IBIT closes below $48, then I expect another 10% lower before we find support. Should IBIT close above $51, then I’m looking for a trading range of $48 to $54 to develop for the month of March.
The biggest bearish sign is the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) falling below the 21-day EMA. The last time we saw that happen was in late summer 2024. This is the first test of resolve for newly minted Bitcoin bulls. For those who have held Bitcoin for the last several years, this remains a non-event. They’ve already been through several wars.
Despite showing relative strength compared to big tech yesterday, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM is in a rough three-month trend and disappointing six-month window. The strong November performance has been erased; now, IWM is testing the October and January lows. The current $210 to $214 area gave way to the bulls in September, with the bears unable to break the level despite a couple of prior attempts.
At the time of publication, Byrne had no positions in any securities mentioned.
