New Ocular Therapeutix Price Target as Stock Prepares to Blow Through the Old One
Wall Street is taking a closer look at the firm after some promising clinical results.
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About two weeks ago, I wrote to the "Stocks Under $10" crowd to inform the folks that one of our more recent initiations, Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL) , had already surged 46%.
I let the readers know that I would be taking a little something off of the position and set a new target price of $13 on the shares. Well, the stock is now taking on the pivot that I had provided at that time and is up another 13.8% since that article.
So, let's stay in close contact with our winners as well as our losers, as this one surprised us in how quickly it performed.
The What?
Readers who have been with us know why we are in this name. Newer readers or those who just missed the earlier pieces need to know that a few weeks ago, the firm released data generated from a Phase 3 study of Axpaxil. This is the firm's experimental candidate for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD).
The study compared a single dose of Axpaxil (0.45 mg) to a single dose of aflibercept (2 mg) in patients afflicted with wet AMD. According to this trial, superiority endpoints met with 74.1% of patients dosed with Axpaxil versus just 56.6% of patients dosed with aflibercept. In addition, 65.9% of patients maintained vision at week 52 with Axpaxil versus just 44.8% with patients dosed with aflibercept. Obvious cause for optimism.
Axpaxil was also well-tolerated throughout the period. There were no treatment-related "serious adverse events" or SAEs. The firm plans, subject to regulatory feedback, to submit a new drug application (NDA) to the FDA for Axpaxil shortly. If approved, this therapeutic would be the first drug of its kind made available to U.S. patients.
The firm discussed the results of this study on Monday and presented these results at the 49th Annual Meeting of the Macula Society on Tuesday.
Wall Street Reacts
- Serge Belanger (five stars at TipRanks) reiterated his "Buy" rating and $18 target price
- William Maughan of Clear Street (five stars) reiterated his Buy rating, while increasing his target price from $21 to $28
- Biren Amin of Piper Sandler (five stars) reiterated his Buy rating and $31 target price
- Tazeen Ahmad of Bank of America (three stars) reiterated her Buy rating, while increasing her target price from $24 to $27
The Chart
Readers will see that OCUL has now retaken its 50-day SMA after having retaken its 21-day EMA. This gets the swing crowd on board while forcing increased professional participation. Relative strength continues to rise but is nowhere near reaching technically overbought territory. The daily MACD is reaching into bullish territory with the histogram of the nine-day EMA now firmly entrenched in positive territory. The 12-day EMA has crossed over the 26-day EMA and now exists in positive territory as well.
The truth is that I think this name is going to blow through my target price and I do not want to be bound by my code of disciple to take some profits there. I don't like to let my opinion be clouded by the opinions of others. That said, those target prices above are, at the least, very interesting.
Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)
Target Price: $18 (up from $13)
Pivot: 200-day SMA (currently $11.04)
Add: Down to February low of $6.19
Panic: New post February 17 low
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long OCUL equity.
