New Ocular Therapeutix Price Target After Quick Surge

Some readers may recall that, little more than one week ago, I covered Ocular Therapeutix  (OCUL)  in this column. 

I made mention of the fact that the firm released data generated from a Phase 3 trial for Axpaxil, which is the firm's experimental candidate for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). After a loading phase, the trial compared a single dose of Axpaxil (0.45 mg) to a single dose of aflibercept (2 mg) in patients afflicted with wet AMD.

According to the study, superiority endpoints met with 74.1% of patients dosed with Axpaxil versus just 56.6% of patients dosed with aflibercept. In addition, 65.9% of patients maintained vision at week 52 with Axpaxil versus just 44.8% with patients dosed with aflibercept.

Axpaxil apparently was also well-tolerated throughout the trial with no treatment-related "serious adverse events." I mentioned last Tuesday that the firm plans, subject to regulatory feedback, to submit a new drug application or NDA to the FDA for Axpaxil. If approved, this would indeed be the first drug of its kind made available to patients here in the US.

As I Told Readers...

In the piece, I wrote that the stock was down 27% on the news and almost 61% since peaking in December 2025. I wrote that I would be accumulating this stock from the mid $6s down into the low $5s. 

The stock bottomed at $6.23 that day, the high was $7.13. My average point of entry was a sloppy $6.56. The last sale I saw for the stock is $9.57. That puts me up almost 46% in literally the blink of an eye. I don't know how many folks followed me into that one. OCUL does not drive the kind of feedback that some of our other "Stocks Under $10" stocks do, but I already have to take some action, just to protect myself. Figured I'd keep you kids in the loop.

The Chart​

Readers will see that OCUL has retaken its 21-day SMA which has brought the swing crowd on board. I see the "Golden Cross." I don't take them as seriously when the 200-day SMA is not ascending at the time of the cross-over as when it is. ​

Last week, I did not put a solid target price on the stock, so I am going to take some off now, as if we did breach a target up 46%. The 50-day SMA will be my new pivot, though I would expect this parabolic move to cool off a bit.

Only 5% of the float is held in short positions so I don't think that is behind the surge, but I don't want to be greedy either and might as well begin the process where we get the principal out of a position and eventually play with house money only.

Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)

Target Price: $13

Pivot: 50-day SMA (currently $10.69)

Add: Down to last week's low of $6.19

Panic: New post February 17 low

At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long OCUL.