New Nvidia Stock Pivot After Next-Generation GPU Update
The AI giant could be targeting a recent all-time high stock price after the CEO detailed progress during CES.
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It's been a little while since I publicly shared my thoughts on Nvidia (NVDA) , almost a month in fact.
In dog years, or in Sarge-time, that means it's been longer than usual. With the chart doing little bit of a jig and with CEO Jensen Huang making headlines in Las Vegas this week, I figured the time had come to update my thoughts, not just for your benefit, but also for mine.
Yes, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) also made headlines on Monday evening, but one at a time and Nvidia is, after all, the "Big Kahuna" in the space.
On Monday evening, Huang took the stage at CES 2026 and really discussed how Nvidia hardware would power everything AI going forward. Opportunities in the eyes of the CEO that go beyond providing the brains behind the data center and large language modeling are robotics and autonomous driving, in a sentient kind of way. The CEO announced that the generation of GPUs beyond Blackwell, known as Vera Rubin, is in "full production" and on track to launch at some point later this year.
On Vera Rubin, William Blair analyst Sebastian Naji, who was quoted at Barron's, said: "Nvidia highlighted that given the significant increase in performance in Vera Rubin, it would take roughly one-fourth the number of GPUs to train a model versus Blackwell.”
As an analyst, Naji is rated at three stars out of five at TipRanks. This all comes on top of news that demand out of China for the H200 GPUs has been better than some had anticipated. Nvidia does not report until late in the earnings season, so we're still almost two months away from hearing how the firm's fiscal fourth quarter is going. That said, the chart has changed.
The Chart
Readers will see that, in this chart, from April into October, Nvidia developed a rising-wedge pattern of bearish reversal that did indeed provide something of a sell-off. Interestingly, as the share price battled with that selling pressure and found dip buyers, NVDA created a new double-bottom pattern which is bullish. This pattern bears a $188 pivot.
Relative strength has improved since I last wrote you on this name. The RSI is currently better than neutral but nowhere near being technically overbought. Below the chart, the daily MACD is really starting to look more bullish. The nine-day EMA is positive and has been since mid-December 2025. The 12-day EMA has crossed above the 26-day EMA, as both of those lines have moved above the zero-bound. This is a best-case short-to-medium bullish signal. The stock appears to have taken and held its 50-day SMA and is currently rising that pattern-created pivot.
The new pivot is a couple of bucks above my old pivot, which was the fourth 50-day line. For now, my target price of $225 still stands, but there is reason to believe that I will have to revise that price level should the shares make a run at the late October highs. This is not at all far-fetched.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long NVDA, AMD and INTC equity.
