My Prescient Super Bowl Indicator Says These Stocks May Be Big Winners in 2026
It's the 26th year of my dependable 'Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator' — and it's signaling a breakout year for these names.
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* The heavier the Super Bowl advertising by a company or industry, the more likely its stock or sector will underperform....and vice versa. If an industry is under represented it may outperform the major indexes.
* This year, my 'Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator' says to buy financials and automobile manufacturers — both of which are massively under represented in Super Bowl ads.
* Last year we observed that there were some striking developments: Automobile ads had only total two spots (General Motors had the least ad space positioning in decades!) and large-cap technology (Google and Microsoft) completely abandoned Super Bowl advertisements in 2025. On cue, our Super Bowl Indicator was prescient as General Motors, Microsoft and Google were meaningful overperformers in 2025.
* On the negative side and for the second year in a row, my 2025 Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator called for caution in consumer products companies that, again, dominated (60%) all advertising spots. (Again), on cue, consumer equities were meaningful underperformers in 2025.
* For the fourth year in a row, Apple (Music) is the halftime sponsor — PepsiCo remains on the sidelines (I should probably short AAPL and hold on to my PEP!)
Super Bowl LX
On Sunday, one of the grandest sporting events of the year will take place: Super Bowl 60.
Back 26 years ago in January 2000, I created a brand new stock market Super Bowl indicator as a contrary indicator, very similar to the cover of Time magazine.
My indicator dictates that the more intense the Super Bowl TV advertising by a group of companies, particularly in a specific industry, the more likely the stocks of those companies will perform poorly in the year ahead. Conversely, a reduction in an industry's Super Bowl commercials augurs well for the stocks in that sector.
My great pal, Barron's Alan Abelson (RIP), was kind enough to include and highlight my newly minted indicator in his "Up and Down Wall Street" column during the weekend of the 2000 Super Bowl — and writing this makes me so nostalgic regarding my weekly conversations with him.
Twenty-six years ago, my Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator gave a clear warning alarm to the end of the dot-com bubble.
As the late Alan Abelson wrote at the time:
"As it happens, last week's tech wreck was accurately forecast by a remarkable new stock-market indicator, one we're proud to print for the first time anywhere, the Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator.
Before you start yapping about it being old hat -- or old helmet -- we respectfully suggest you cool it. Pure and simple, our new indicator has nothing to do with the old Super Bowl indicator. Unlike the latter, its predictive power doesn't depend on the outcome of the Super Bowl or, more specifically, whether the winner represents the National Football League's American Conference or the National Conference.
Our brand-new Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator is a contrary indicator, kind of like the cover of Time. Its critical components are the commercials carried on television coverage of the event and the identity of the companies doing the advertising. Its virtue is not as a forecaster for the market as a whole, but for individual sectors of the market.
The indicator is the handiwork of Doug Kass, a kindly hedge-fund operator who, despite a propensity to short quantum leapers, wound up last year with an improbable performance matching Nasdaq's improbable performance.
Simply put, the more intense the Super Bowl TV advertising by a group of companies, the more likely the stocks of those companies -- and others of a kindred ilk -- will do poorly in the year ahead. For 2000, we're sorry to report, the indicator is flashing red for the Internet crew.
By Doug's count, roughly 12 of the 30 companies shelling out an average of $2 million for 30-second spots are dot.coms. That's four times the number of 'Net outfits that made their pitch on Super Bowl TV last year and compares with only one in each of the prior two years.
What's more, for the first time, an Internet company, E*Trade, is sponsoring the half-time show. That's known in locker-room lingo as piling on.
If nothing else, the greater the number of look-alike or sound-alike companies doing the shilling, the less the impact of the individual shills. And in fact, there seems to be more than a modicum of evidence that for the viewer, the link between the commercial and the sponsoring Web company barely registers.
Making the auguries all the darker for those dozen dotcoms is the sad history of the sole 'Net TV advertiser during Super Bowls XXXI and XXXII, autobytel.com. A '99 IPO, the stock peaked at $48 and, last we looked, was a hair under 17.
Without Wall Street, Silicon Valley would not have been able to remove the burden of salaries from its operating statements and substitute stock options for cash compensation. Without the lovely boost to earnings afforded by the incredible lightness of labor costs, earnings growth would be considerably less, and so the multiples awarded that growth would be merely ridiculous instead of absurd. There would be only a quarter as many West Coast billionaires and half as many millionaires.
In like manner, since the vast bulk of Internet companies are bereft of even a hint of cash flow, Wall Street has, via stock offerings, endowed them with the means of promoting their wares, not only on TV during the Super Bowl breaks but also in newspapers and magazines, on billboards and in subway cars and every other space known to advertising man.
If, indeed, we are rapidly reaching the point of cognitive congestion where the consumer is under such assault from so many dot.coms that they have begun to merge in his psyche into one big indivisible glob, that spells trouble in capital letters. And not only for the 'Net companies, but also for the media on which that vast flow of lucre has been lavished."
- Alan Abelson, Barron's (January 2000)
Of course, the rest was history, as one of the largest stock market declines, especially of a technology and Internet kind, occurred during the subsequent few years.
For 30 Seconds of Your Time
Here is the recent Super Bowl commercial price history (30-second spot):
2019: $5,300,000
2020: $5,600,000
2021: $5,500,000
2022: $6,500,000 Estimated. (Ads were sold out on Feb 3. Several 30-second spots went for as high as $7 million!)
2023: $7,000,000 (One 30-second spot went for as high as $10 million!)
2024: $7,000.000
2025: $7.000,000 (10 30-second spots went for $8 million!)
2026: $8,000,000 (several 30-second spots have gone for prices exceeding $10 million!)
The List
Here is a complete list (and ranking) of 2026 Super Bowl advertisers:
Ranking the best 2026 Super Bowl commercials: Tight Ends, ‘Will Shat’ and more - The Athletic
A summary of this year's Super Bowl ads:
For the fourth time since 2013 PepsiCo (PEP) is not sponsoring The Half Time Show — and as they have since 2022 Apple (Music) (AAPL) is taking its place. I should probably hold on to my PEP!
Reviewing Super Bowl Advertisers of the Recent Past
As mentioned, my 2025 "Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator" was prescient — calling for strength in technology (especially Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) )/automobile (particularly General Motors (GM) ) equities and weakness in consumer staples stocks.
My 2023 and 2024 Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator also called for caution on Apple.
My 2022 Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator called for a bitcoin short as cryptocurrency companies were conspicuous advertisers. That was quite prescient as bitcoin more than halved and its largest player, FTX, filed for bankruptcy. Cryptocurrency companies are conspicuous by their absence this year after making a splash).
A year earlier, my 2021 Super Bowl Indicator said to short beer and food stocks — as well as Robinhood (HOOD) — and to buy auto stocks which were underrepresented for the first time in years. Beer and food were indeed 2021 market laggards and Robinhood's shares peaked at $83. On the other hand, my Indicator said to buy under represented auto stocks — Ford's (F) stock rose by about +135% and General Motors' shares gained about +39% in 2021, far in excess of the +26% advance in the S&P Index.
Some Super Bowl Concerns to Be Aware Of
Here are two separate columns that merit rereading — as they document consistent themes I look for in the pattern of Super Bowl ads:
Cryptocurrency Exchange FTX Joins Super Bowl for First Time
Several years ago I wrote that cryptocurrency was here to stay. With Crypto.com buying naming rights to the Staples Center and NBA star Kevin Durant partnering with Coinbase (COIN) , the new technology and sporting world have formed a fast and friendly relationship. Cryptocurrency exchange FTX was getting in on the action, purchasing a Super Bowl Ad for LVI, but it has not released any creative details yet. Valued at $25 billion, FTX recently purchased the naming rights to an arena in Miami for $135 million. The company has also recently named stars Tom Brady, Gisele Bündchen, Stephen Curry and Shohei Ohtani brand ambassadors.
Crypto.com Adds to Cryptocurrency Blitz; Will Air First Super Bowl Commercial Ever
Cryptocurrency and sports have continued to develop a relationship and that burgeoning partnership is reaching a fever pitch. Cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com has announced that it will be running its first Super Bowl ad according to the Wall Street Journal. It's another notch on the brand's belt as it recently paid a reported $700 million for the naming rights to the Staples Center Arena in Los Angeles. Crypto.com also became a sponsor for the 2021 Coppa Italia Final earlier this year. Actor Matt Damon appeared in a spot for the brand in late October.
The rest was history -- at least from the standpoint of an historical decline in the price of bitcoin and the failure of FTX.
Relatedly, in 2022 I warned about celebrity endorsements:
Oct 03, 2022 ' 08:30 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Beware of Celebrity Endorsements of Stocks and Other Asset Classes
I had previously highlighted the absurdity of Matt Damon's Super Bowl (ad) sponsorship of crypto.com in Barron's earlier in the year and Kim Kardashian's entry into the private equity field in Barron's last month (Randy Forsyth's Up and Down Wall Street column):
Housing Bubble and Kim Kardashian: More Troubling News for Markets by Randall W. Forsyth Follow Updated Sept. 9, 2022 1:31 pm ET/ Original Sept. 9, 2022 10:26 am ET
Can there be a better sign of a market top than when celebrities pile into it? Especially celebs whose main talent is to appeal to the public's tastes, or lack thereof.
While they might be acutely attuned to what's happening in fashion, music, or the movies, they can be late in latching onto financial trends to which their sole connection is an insatiable desire to wring as much money as possible from the zeitgeist.
All of which is brought to mind by news that Kim Kardashian is launching a new private-equity venture. Truth be told, I don't know what she or the rest of her reality show family is famous for, other than for being famous. But Kim has leveraged her millions of followers on social media to become a huge entrepreneur, with interests ranging from women's undergarments to faux meat. That indeed is a talent not to be discounted.
Her entry into private equity recalls other celebrities' forays into financial spheres just ahead of those markets' top ticks. Most recently, all manner of celebs plunged into cryptocurrencies, most notably actor Matt Damon, who touted Crypto.com in a now infamous Super Bowl ad in which he intoned how "fortune favors the brave."
Doug Kass, the head of Seabreeze Partners-who flagged the prevalence of cryptocurrency ads at the time-further pointed out in an email this past week how other worthies, from rapper 50 Cent to quarterback Aaron Rodgers to New York City Reality star Kim Kardashian and former Carlyle Group investor Jay Sammons have launched SKKY Partners, a private-equity firm.
Private equity hasn't suffered big losses. But, according to a Sept. 8 note from Citi Research's quantitative global macro strategy group, private asset prices tend to lag those of the publicly traded markets, which are quoted second by second on screens. Weakness in public equity markets portend lower private-asset valuations, according to the report. Kim's entrance into the rarefied world of private equity may be about as propitiously timed as Barbra Streisand's furious pursuit of initial public offerings at the height of dotcom mania in 1999. (Babs told Fortune back then that she had quadrupled her money in America Online shares, but averred that she didn't pretend to be a maven "like the guy in Barron's last week who can analyze all the companies and so forth.")
If private markets do get marked down one to two quarters after the public ones, as Citi says they have historically, that points to similar trouble for the former. I wouldn't shed any tears for Kim K. or any other A-lister able to get past the velvet ropes into private equity funds.
Bottom Line
An analysis of 2026 Super Bowl advertisements again shows that automobile manufacturers, historically big advertisers, are not well represented — with only Jeep and Hyundai advertising.
As well, financial companies are poorly represented. Ergo, our Indicator suggests the purchase of automobile and financials.
It also shows a larger-than-normal concentration of consumer products commercials — with about 60% of the ads consumer-related. My Super Bowl Indicator says take the recent strength and sell staples.
Finally for the fourth year in a row, Apple is replacing PepsiCo as the half-time show sponsor, we might again consider a cautious view towards the company. (Short AAPL, long PEP?).
Enjoy the game!!
This commentary was originally posted in Doug's Daily Diary on TheStreet Pro.
At the time of publication, Kass was long PEP (S).
