My Game Plan: Incremental Buys (Like This One) Until Market Gets Answers

The deterioration of the markets accelerated last week. The S&P 500 had its fifth straight weekly decline. Both the Dow and Nasdaq ended the week in official correction territory, with the latter falling 3.23% on the week. That was the tech-heavy index’s poorest weekly performance since early last April, when reciprocal tariffs were first announced. Much of the Magnificent Seven, which has been the primary driver of the gains in the market from 2023-2025, have started to break down. Microsoft (MSFT) is now down just over 25% year-to-date. Mr. Softie’s worse start to a year since 2008 in front of the Great Financial Crisis.

The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude through the $110/barrel level late last week. There was also the first real whiff of panic in the markets in 2026 with the VIX pushing through the $30 level Friday for the first time since equities brief tariff tantrum almost exactly one year ago. The situation in the private credit markets seems to be getting worse by the week, with several more large private credit funds gating redemptions last week.

Also keep an eye on commercial real estate. The commercial mortgage-backed securities delinquency rate on office buildings is higher than it was during the peak of the Great Financial Crisis. There is some $1.3 trillion in debt tied to this struggling commercial real estate sector. Just over $200 billion matures in 2026 and roughly a third does in 2027, and likely at significantly higher interest rates than the last time these properties were financed. It will be interesting to see if extend & pretend continues to prevail or if more loans get marked to market as well as the impacts to regional banks and other lenders’ balance sheets.

My view is the market is likely to continue to decline until investors get some resolution on one or more of these fronts. But I am incrementally buying the dip in equities as the overall market has been more resilient than I have thought it should be for many quarters now.

After the March 20 option expiration, my portfolio was roughly one third short term treasuries and cash as well as two thirds covered- call positions in the few stocks I am finding in the market with reasonable if not attractive valuations. Right now, I am mostly sticking with blue chip names that have traded down significantly here in 2026. Last week, I picked up some more The Walt Disney Company (DIS) as I highlighted in my Sunday column. I also initiated a position in Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) . Both names are trading at some their cheapest valuations in years. In addition, both stocks have seen insider buying and in the case of Salesforce are in the process of a massive stock buyback authorization.

Those purchases brought my cash balance to just under 29% as of Friday’s close. My game plan is to continue put my dry powder to work in this manner if markets continue to pullback. Microsoft (MSFT) might be my next purchase, and I will get more aggressive if the VIX heads toward $40 and confirms that there is finally some real fear in these markets that are facing a litany of serious problems.

At the time of publication, Jensen was long CRM and DIS.