Looking to Sell This Small-Cap Space Name in a Tentative Market
I was unable to follow through on my plans last week as the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated.
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Before we move on to anything else, on Thursday, in this column, I laid out an aggressive slate of intentions for the $10,000 Portfolio while equity markets were trading lower earlier in the day.
After waiting for publication and then waiting for readers to be able to act ahead of the portfolio, readers may recall that markets, especially smaller-cap stocks, which is what we are mostly dealing with here, rallied nicely.
Hence, I was not able to act in the stocks that I laid out in that Thursday morning plan as intended and simply held off on making most of my trades. Here is the slate of stated intentions versus what I was actually able to get done (not much) without blowing up the trade idea.
Thursday's Intentions vs Thursday's Actual Trades
-Intention: Buy 25 shares of (SOFI) at or close to the last sale of $15.10
-Actual Trade: Bought 25 shares of SOFI at $15.70
-Buy 25 shares of (ONDS) at or close to the last sale of $8.47
-Nothing Done. Closed at $9.60.
-Buy 25 shares of (INFQ) at or close to the last sale of $8.99
-Nothing Done. Closed at $10.57.
-Buy 2 shares of (PLTR) at or close to the last sale of $142.59
-Nothing Done. Closed at $148.46.
-Buy 5 shares of (RKLB) at or close to the last sale of $62.19
-Nothing Done. Closed at $67.73.
What Now?
U.S.-based financial markets are coming off of a three-day weekend. For some foreign markets, the Easter holiday includes Monday, so global participation is a little subdued on the morning.
Market participants are moving tentatively on Monday as headline risk only increased over the weekend. On Sunday, President Trump posted a threat on social media threatening the regime in Iran that, should the Strait of Hormuz not open safely for maritime passage by his extended Tuesday night deadline, the nation would experience significant damage to its infrastructure facilities.
Nearly simultaneously, Axios (in a report that has since been picked up across the media) reported that the U.S., Iran and leaders from Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, acting as mediators, were negotiating what could possibly be a 45-day ceasefire.
This could ultimately set the stage for an end to the war. These discussions seem to be focused on putting together a two-phased deal that would create a non-violent environment so that a finalized peace deal could be pursued. In an attempt to display his seriousness, the president did tell Axios that there was a "good chance" that a deal could be reached by his new, extended deadline. The president added, though, "If they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there."
That leads us to economic health and inflation.
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released a remarkably strong labor market report for March. If that report is accurate, which is always a good question when dealing with the notoriously sloppy folks over at the BLS, then the sudden increase in demand for labor in March and in jobs created could make it more difficult for the FOMC to cut short-term interest rates anytime soon.
The numbers for March were impressive. The BLS reported an increase in Non-Farm Payrolls of 178,000 jobs for the month versus expectations for something down around 60,000. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% to 4.3% as well, versus a consensus view that was for 4.5%.
Monday Morning Intention
Sell 25 shares of (SIDU) at $3.10 or better, for a short-term gain of 52.8% or better, leaving a long position of 25 shares.
Current Positions
Long 150 shares of SOFI at $15.988. Last sale: $16.24.
Long 125 shares of (OCUL) at $8.061. Last sale: $8.46.
Long 125 shares of ONDS at $9.4749. Last sale: $9.85.
Long 7 shares of PLTR at $149.25. Last sale: $150.25.
Long 15 shares of RKLB at $67.1653. Last sale: $69.26.
Long 50 shares of INFQ at $9.965. Last sale $10.94.
Long 100 shares of SIDU at $2.029. Last sale: $2.95.
Short 1 SOFI May 15 $18.00 Call at $1.01. Last sale: $0.72.
Short 1 ONDS May 8 $10.50 Call at $0.60. Last sale: $0.80.
Cash: $2,816.48
Portfolio Value: $10,299.23, +3.0% from inception.
Related: Why I'm Fading a 'Ceasefire Rally' as Trump's Iran Deadline Approaches
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long SOFI, OCUL, ONDS, PLTR, RKLB, INFQ and SIDU.
