It's Nvidia's World. All of the Other Stocks Just Exist Here.

The Market

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So Nvidia  (NVDA)  will save the S&P. But will it save the 493?

You might have noticed that Nvidia rallied today, and thus, all the excitement we had yesterday over the others enjoying the day was wiped out. But you already know this. It’s not like this is news to us.

I want to note a change in sentiment. Yes, there are statistics, but also – well, pre the NVDA earnings — I detected a change in tone from the talking heads. Three weeks ago, it was all sunshine. Recall the Investors’ Intelligence bull/bear ratio was 4.25, which told us things had gotten giddy.

But by midday today, the chatter was not bearish — oh no, definitely not bearish — it was more of an acknowledgement that maybe tech stocks are not all so fabulous. Maybe things are only good, not great.

And now for the hard data. The Investors’ Intelligence Bulls fell nearly eight points this week to 48.1%. Three weeks ago, they were just over 59%. So we have seen a shift in sentiment here. It’s not the ‘fear’ that Fear and Greed tells us there is, but definitely a shift. That bull/bear ratio is down to 2.88 now.

And then there is the ten-day moving average of the put/call ratio. In early October, it was .81. Now it is .91, and since the calendar turned to November, it has literally been a nonstop rise.

So to recap on sentiment, three or four weeks ago, we had giddy. But the decline in November has taken those bulls and turned them a lot less bullish. I wouldn’t call them bearish, just maybe they have pulled in their horns in a big way.

I have no doubt that technology rallying will change that sentiment back in a hurry, but that’s why markets ought to swing and not be one-directional.

New Ideas

I want to follow up on Microsoft (MSFT)  because it did not hold $500 and it did breakdown. I will give it a few days to see if it can recapture the broken line. If it can’t, then I will consider the chart broken. Note that would be the second member of the Mag 7 to break ( (META)  being the first).

Let me note that the DSI for Bitcoin is now 17.

Today’s Indicator

Since I know I have never seen a market like this in my life (and no, 1999 was not like this), I must say I don’t know if this will matter, but the Volume Indicator tagged 48% on Tuesday. That puts it (the 493) into oversold territory, especially if it gets to 47%.

Q&A/Reader’s Feedback

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(SLV) , an ETF to be long Silver, looks fairly similar to me as it did a week ago: trapped in a wide range. Now, a week ago, the DSI was over 80 as it approached that old resistance area. After last week’s back-off, the DSI is 59, so at least that has turned neutral. Generally speaking, I just prefer when the chart has done more work and is less spikey. I’d love to see a quick test down to $44 that holds.

Reddit (RDDT)  would have been better off filling that gap at $160 two weeks ago rather than falling short in doing so. Now I don’t trust it to rally well. A break of $180 I believe, sends this down toward $160.

Credo (CRDO)  had better hold $130. What would be bearish is if it has a pathetic rally to say $160-ish and then turns down because that would set up a head and shoulders top. But for now, I would just use a stop under $130.

Vera Bradley (VRA) still has a nice base. I fear the volume (not shown) these last few days means it is a meme stock, though. If it falls back under $2.75, I’d run for the hills.