It's Early, But Here's What I'm Seeing This Earnings Season
The reaction to earnings is something to watch — and this is what I've noticed so far. Also, will Apple rally? We answer that question and look at AMD, Verizon, The Trade Desk, TJX and more.
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The Market
I don’t even know what is considered the Mag 7 stocks anymore, but when you consider that Meta META, Apple AAPL and Google GOOGL were all flat Thursday that brings up the question, are they still the index movers? I say yes, but time will tell.
It’s still quite early in the earnings season, but I noted earlier this week that the reaction to earnings is something to watch. The "down and outs" that have decent earnings are popping (see Johnson & Johnson JNJ, PepsiCo PEP or Delta Air Lines DAL last week). So far I see Netflix NFLX is not getting love after hours, although that can change Friday.
But we also saw JPMorgan Chase JPM mill around on good earnings. And Thursday we saw GE Aerospace GE reverse on good earnings. The stocks that are getting sold, or more appropriately not getting bought, on good earnings are not breaking though.
There were still no changes in the indicators after Thursday. The DSI for the Nasdaq is at 82 and the S&P's is at 78. The S&P’s had come down to 70 from 87 so it’s now climbing back.
The VIX’s DSI is back to being a teenager so it’s on a watch list at 19. And Bitcoin is back at 81.
I could go on about how breadth did not make a new high with the S&P, but no one cares.
I could go on about how the new highs are still lower than they were, but no one cares.
At least some of our down and outs are reining in the shorts.
New Ideas
Sometime a few months ago I was asked about Grocery Outlet GO. I didn’t love the chart but promised to keep an eye on it. Well, it is finally shaping up and if it gets through $14 it might catch a few eyes.
The question is if Apple AAPL will rally. It has certainly been a laggard but if it can stay over $207 and then get over $215 that might catch folks by surprise. It still hasn’t filled that gap from March.
Today’s Indicator
The 10-day moving average of the put/call ratio is low.
Q&A/Reader’s Feedback
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I thought Costco COST would hold that blue line and clearly it hasn’t. It really should hold this $940 area (black line). Should it rally and be unable to get back over the blue line I would get quite concerned about the chart.
Note: There have been several of these former fave stocks that in the past would have rallied once they pulled back but now they keep sliding.
Arquit Quantum ARQQ has good support at $30 but it ought to get over $45 and take a stab at that December high just over $50. That base measures to that $50-ish area.
The Trade Desk TTD got over that resistance line on news it would be included in the S&P and has had no follow through since. As long as it stays over $80-ish it gets the benefit of the doubt. Can it fill that gap? It would be best if it could do it before the inclusion into the S&P because often that makes a short-term top. But for now, back under that line and it’s not good; over it, it’s good.
Verizon VZ has some decent support in this $41 area so it really ought to try and hold here. But like so many stocks, it has languished.
I really thought Advanced Micro Devices AMD would come down and test that $120-ish area before heading up again but instead it zipped right up to fill that gap at $160. I cannot chase it up here since it is just not my style to do so but as long as it stays over $150 it’s okay to hold. There is a measured target right here around $160.
TJX Cos. TJX is trying to hold $120, so as long as it doesn’t break that level then it’s okay, but there is an awful lot of resistance all the way up.
