If You're Waiting Until April 2nd, Don't.
The market is unlikely to wait. Expect the news to be priced in before the tariffs take effect.
You're reading 0 of 1 free page.
Register to read more or Unlock Pro — 50% Off Ends Soon
The Market
Another day, another rally. That’s now four out of the last six days the market has been up. It’s a different sort of oversold reaction than we are used to because, previously, it would have zoomed on up. I do think the lack of zipping upward is probably because there was no panic.
Did the indicators change? Not much. I hate to keep saying that, but it’s true. The Overbought/Oversold Oscillator is still just below the zero line; today barely moved it. It is not yet overbought.
The one change is that the McClellan Summation Index finally turned up. Better late than never. It will now require a net differential of -1400 advancers minus decliners on the NYSE to halt the rise, so it has a little cushion for some backing off.
On the sentiment side, the Investors Intelligence bulls and bears barely budged, so they remain a plus for the market. The put/call ratio was neutral today, so at least it didn’t show us a ton of call buying, just a bit.
One thing I would point out is that anecdotally, I see everyone saying the market will be on shaky ground until we know what the tariffs are on April 2nd. The market rarely accommodates such deadlines so readily. By that, I mean these binary decisions with these exact dates tend to have things priced in by the time they roll around. That’s still two weeks away, so we don’t need to worry about it now but know that it’s become a talking point.
The other point I would make is that the first group to recapture its 200-day moving average line was the Bank Index. That’s different. It used to be tech would do so. My play has been Goldman Sachs GS since about two weeks ago. There is some resistance here at 560. If you wanted to take a few profits, I wouldn’t stop you, but I have my eye on 580-ish.
This remains a trading market.
New Ideas
I want to follow up on XLE which I liked a week or two ago with the idea it might cross this line. It has. It also has resistance up here in the 92-94 area, so I’d look to buy a pullback to the line.
Today’s Indicator
The Volume Indicator has zipped right back to 50%
Q&A/Reader’s Feedback
Helene welcomes your questions about Top Stocks and her charting strategy and techniques. Please send an email directly to Helene with your questions. However, please remember that TheStreet.com Top Stocks is not intended to provide personalized investment advice. Email Helene here.
Dell Technologies DELL has a lot of resistance, starting right here at 100. There is a decent chance it fills that gap at 107, especially if a pullback from 100 is shallow.
Moderna MRNA has not made a higher high in nearly a year. I’d love to bottom-fish it, but unless/until it can make a higher high, the stock is in a downtrend.
Advanced Micro Devices AMD hit its downside-measured target when it got to 100. But it hasn’t made a higher high since October. If AMD can cross this line and get to the 110-115 area, then pull back and rally again, I’d start to believe it was trying to bottom.
BKLN an ETF for loans hasn’t broken yet. If it breaks this line, I would guess it’s a problem.
JOYY YY is not my kind of chart because it is up so much already and has that spike high at 55 to contend with, but it ought to bounce off that 44-ish area since it has bounced off that line since November.
I was asked about NLR, an ETF to be long Nuclear/Uranium, but it trades quite thinly and looks just like URA, an ETF to be long uranium, so I’d rather use URA. It bounced off support and looks to me like it ought to make its way toward resistance at 27, but getting through that resistance over 27 is going to be tough. The equivalent area is 82-84 on NLR.
Capital One COF filled that gap from November, which is a positive. There is resistance at 175, but my inclination is that as long as it stays over 160-ish, it ought to be okay since this is the first real correction it has had in more than a year.
