How to Trade Bitcoin With a Clarity Breakout on the Horizon
The bitcoin price is stuck in a clear band, here's how to trade or invest in the cryptocurrency.
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Crypto Twitter loves every dip, even when the tape says bear market. If you’re investing in BTC or iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) through dollar-cost averaging, keep doing your thing. This is for traders.
The Bitcoin price has lived between about $85,000 and $95,000 since late November 2025. It poked above the band in mid-January, only to be swatted back as demand dried up. We’re sliding toward the bottom of the channel again. Until price is accepted above $95,000 with sustained buying, treat this as a range inside a multi-month downtrend.
My plan is simple. Into and under $85,000, I want to see sellers stall and supply shut off. If we undercut $85,000 and snap back, that’s a tactical long with a tight stop. If we start holding below $85,000 and leaking lower, I don't want to be long in a trading account. I either stand aside or sell failed retests. A sustained break targets $73,000. That’s the next battleground.
Bottom line for traders: treat $85,000 to $95,000 as home base. Fade the edges. Do not flip bias until price is accepted outside that range. If acceptance is below $85,000, respect the slide toward $73,000. If acceptance is above $95,000, switch to buying strength.
Bottom line for investors: on a multi-year view, the range is noise. Stick to the plan and the horizon. Don’t mix trading and investing in the same account. That’s how good ideas get torched.
Clarity on the Clarity Act
Life would be easier if we could label BTC a risk asset or a safe haven and trade it accordingly, but that’s not the world we live in. The next catalyst for crypto traders is the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act."
Unfortunately, the Clarity Act is stuck in the Senate. The House already moved its version, but the bill now has to clear the banking and agriculture committees, get merged, win over several Democratic votes, and then reach the floor. Oh, and banks are doing everything they can to kill support for this bill.
A late push to restrict stablecoin yield is blowing up support. Banks want the bill to bar exchanges and platforms from paying interest on stablecoin balances, which crypto leaders say is unacceptable and a nonstarter. In a nutshell, banks fear deposit flight, while crypto firms say not paying interest would push users offshore.
Passing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would be a net positive for market plumbing and custody. You would likely see federally registered trading venues, bank-style oversight for stablecoin issuers, clearer dispute paths for customers, and fewer surprise enforcement swings. The tradeoff may be yield and rewards. Those programs could be trimmed or reshaped by the final rules.
Even if the bill passes, agencies are likely to spend months to years drafting the details, so the impact will be gradual. But for traders, passing Clarity should be a bullish catalyst — to what degree is unknowable.
At the time of publication, Byrne was long IBIT in long-term accounts.
