Buying Boeing After Series of Orders Drives Breakout
I'm willing to overcome by bias against Boeing after a series of positive headlines drives the stock up.
You're reading 0 of 1 free page.
Register to read more or Unlock Pro — 50% Off Ends Soon
Earlier this week, Boeing (BA) landed an order from Uzbekistan Airways for up to 22 787-9 Dreamliners. The order was for a firm 14 aircrafts with an option for eight more.
This was the largest single aircraft order in the history of that particular airline. The very next day, which was Tuesday, Bloomberg News reported that the U.S. and China were in the late stages of negotiating what was referred to as a "huge" aircraft order. By "huge," according to the report, we are talking about as many as 500 aircraft. That is not a misprint.
The same day, Defense News reported that Boeing had begun production of the F-47 sixth-generation fighter aircraft with a maiden flight scheduled for 2028. Yes, apparently the "top of the line" fifth-generation F-35 Lightning and F-22 Raptor, both products of Boeing competitor Lockheed Martin (LMT) , are already headed toward surrendering that title.
Before Tuesday was done, Boeing announced a new collaboration with Palantir Technologies (PLTR) to bring artificial intelligence into its national defense operations. Boeing will adopt Palantir's Foundry platform to unify data across facilities where aircraft, missiles and satellites are manufactured.
On Thursday, Boeing announced an award of up to $671 million by the Defense Logistics Agency for the manufacture and production of KC-135 stabilizers. The KC-135 is a Boeing built military aerial refueling tanker. This came on top of a $198 million award by the U.S. Navy to support the extended lifespan of the fourth generation F/A-18 Super Hornet.
Turkish Airlines Places Boeing Purchase Order
There's more. This has really been an incredible week for Boeing. On Friday morning, Turkish Airlines placed a purchase order with the firm for up to 225 aircraft.
Included is a firm order for 50 787-9 and 787-10 passenger jets with an option to buy an additional 25. Also included is a firm order for 100 737-8/10 Max aircraft with an option to purchase an additional 50.
Want more? OK. Norwegian Air has apparently exercised an option to purchase 30 737 Max 8s, bringing an originally firm order for 50 aircraft in 2022 up to a total of 80.
Need to Know
As all of these orders appear to be pouring in, negotiations are underway with both Rolls-Royce (RYCEY) and GE Aerospace (GE) in regard to supplying engines and parts for all of these aircraft.
Earnings
Boeing is expected to report the firm's third quarter earnings in less than a month. Wall Street sees an adjusted EPS of -$0.85 on revenue of $21.6 billion. Though still not profitable, that would compare well to the year-ago print of -$10.44, while reflecting sales growth of more than 21%. Of the 18 sell-side analysts that I know track Boeing, 11 have revised the Q3 earnings estimates lower since the start of the quarter while five have revised their numbers higher. Two have sat on their estimates.
This will be the 17th consecutive quarter that Boeing has failed to turn a profit but will also be the third consecutive quarter of annual sales growth. Things are improving. As seen above, things seem to be improving rapidly. Consensus view is for a profitable fourth quarter and if the firm can avoid screwing itself up as it so often has in the past... a profitable year for 2026.
My Thoughts
Long-time readers know that I have a negative personal bias when it comes to Boeing. I can't not have this bias. It goes back to something an Air Force Staff Sergeant said to me on the tarmac regarding his opinion of equipment received from Boeing after he and his crew had given me and my crew a lift down to the jungles of Panama almost 40 years ago.
What I can do is acknowledge that bias and try to be objective. Obviously, this Boeing is not that Boeing, but there have been enough screw-ups along the way. It is impossible not to be impressed with all of those orders that rolled in this week alone. It is also impossible not to notice that the form does seem to be moving in the right direction under CEO Kelly Ortberg, who took over little more than a year ago.
Readers will see that BA hit resistance hard this summer at the 78.6% Fibonacci sequence retracement level of the December 2023 into April 2025 sell-off. Support has been found close to the 61.8% Fib level of that same sell-off repeatedly since hitting that resistance.
On a much shorter chart, it becomes apparent that BA is on Friday morning breaking out of a falling-wedge pattern which is bullish. I would be careful to see the upper trendline of the wedge as the pivot with two key moving averages nearby. The stock is trying to retake its 21-day EMA on Friday morning. That's the turf of the swing crowd. They are the ones who will decide the outcome of this fight.
The 50-day SMA, currently at $226, is the upside pivot in my opinion. This is where professionally managed money will have to make a decision. Should that line be taken, a target price of $271, which would be a post-2023 high would be (in my opinion) very realistic.
I am going to initiate a small, long position after this article becomes public information and add to that position should the pros get behind the stock at the 50-day line. May that Staff Sergeant forgive me. Oh, for the record, a Staff Sergeant in the Air Force is not senior to a Sergeant in the Marine Corps. Same pay grade. We were peers.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long PLTR and GE equity.
