After a 3‑Year Run of Winning Picks, Here’s My Stock of the Year for 2026
Here's why I'm betting on this company and a former Army middle linebacker for next year and beyond.
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I can't promise you roses and we all know that past performance is no guarantee of future success. I am the guy who selected Palantir Technologies (PLTR) as my "pick of the year" for 2024 in December 2023, and again in December 2024 for 2025. I'm still long that name, by the way.
Palantir handed us a nifty 340% return in 2024 and a handsome 148% return so far with less than two weeks to go in 2025. In December 2022, I picked Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as my 2023 stock. AMD was up "just" 127.6% that year.
Three years running as mythical champion? I don't know. I also don't know if someone else has (ever) beaten that three-year performance, though it seems unlikely.
Before I get too carried away patting myself on the back, however, understand that I've also picked a few clunkers, such as Disney (DIS) in December 2021. DIS gave up 44.6% in 2022, though I did get readers out well before it was down that far.
Understand that I do swing for the fences on these picks. There are, by nature, both home runs and strikeouts that follow. Be cognizant of the potential for risk and of your own risk tolerance.
Without further ado, let's get on with it...
I Believe...
I believe that the move of generative and agentic artificial intelligence out of its infancy will democratize a number of industries. These industries will benefit from increased efficiencies, increased productivity and more focused allocation of resources.
As mentioned earlier Wednesday, I believe Amazon (AMZN) will realize more tangible benefits as AI matures than will the other hyper-scalers. Hence, AMZN was my runner up as 2026 Stock of the Year.
I also fully believe that the financials, in particular, the banks, large and small, will realize notable increases in abilities to maximize profitability in this environment. While I see Wells Fargo (WFC) CEO Charlie Scharf as the industry's heir apparent to JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) Jamie Dimon as the chosen one that will be viewed as our nation's top banker, that is also not my pick, though I do wish to re-initiate that name.
That said, I see another banking CEO who I think will lead his firm to victory in 2026 and going forward from there. I can still hear the PA announcer at Michie Stadium, play after play... "Noto with the tackle" time and time again. The man was a middle linebacker for Army's football team and remains one of those players that fans of the team do not forget. He served with the now retired 24th Infantry Division and was Ranger-qualified. He went on to graduate from Wharton School of Business and cut his business teeth at Goldman Sachs (GS) , the NFL and also at Twitter.
I speak of Anthony Noto, CEO of SoFi Technologies (SOFI) since 2018. Since taking the helm of the online bank/financial services company, SoFi has acquired both Galileo Financial Services and Wyndham Capital Mortgage. Speaking of acquisitions, Noto is known for purchasing shares of SOFI without making sales, even making open market purchases when dips in the share price do occur.
It's True
Earlier this month, SoFi announced an underwritten secondary public offering of $1.5 billion in common stock. All of the shares were sold by the company. SoFi intended to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, including enhancing capital position, increasing optionality, funding incremental growth and enabling further efficiency of capital management.
Ultimately 54.5 million shares were sold at $27.50. The offering was conducted under the firm's automatic shelf registration that has been effective since July 29 of this, so common sense told us that some equity dilution was headed our way and the stock did sell off a little.
By my math, that deal diluted the equity by roughly 4.5%. The stock held up rather well at first, but probably sold off more than it had to, now down more than 12% since that offering. At the time, I stuck to my $36 price target price.
Is the Time Right?
SoFi is due to report in late January. For the firm's fiscal fourth quarter, the consensus view is for GAAP EPS of $0.12 on revenue of $986.5 million. Numbers like that would compare well to the year-ago comp of $0.05 while reflecting annual revenue growth of 33.5%. Of the 13 sell-side analysts that I know of that cover SOFI, all 13 have revised their earnings estimates for the quarter higher since the start of the period. Huzzah.
Readers will see in the chart, above, a double top pattern of bearish reversal with a $25.60 pivot and perhaps become intimidated. This is a year-long call, mind you. We actually (though I am already long) don't mind seeing the share price depressed ahead of the New Year. That would put my optimal "buy zone" in the $23 area. I would happily add to my long all the way down to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which currently stands at $20.60.
Relative Strength has weakened in December as the daily moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has also taken on a bearish posture. The histogram of the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) is now below zero. That's a short-term bearish signal. In addition, the 12-day EMA has crossed below the 26-day EMA. That's a more medium-term bearish sign.
Our upside pivot? The 50-day SMA. Now at $28.20, that's where the pros jump on board. The swing crowd may get involved a little earlier as the 21-day EMA comes into play.
My price target? $36 for now.
End of year? I really don't know.
Down the road? $100.
At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long PLTR, AMD, SOFI, JPM and equity.
