A Wake-Up Call for KeyCorp

Some readers may recall (though others may not, as I do not write on this name often) that way back on January 17, 2025 (yes, more than a year ago), ahead of the firm's Q4 earnings release, I revealed for my "Stocks Under $10" crowd (though the stock was trading under $20) that I had a long position cooking in regional banker KeyCorp (KEY) .

Earnings were solid and the stock ran higher, which is why we were in it.

At that time, I publicly placed a $23 target price on the stock. The stock apexed at $23.39 earlier this week, back on Monday. Yes, it took that long. Hopefully, even though it took me four days to write up a follow-up piece due to my other obligations, those of you who may have followed me into this name respected our code of discipline and took a little something off while the shares were trading above our target.

That said, the shares have come sharply off of that high as the banks and other groups have come under intense pressure this week. So, the question is: What now, Sarge? Funny you asked, because I have an answer.

What to Do?​

It appears that KEY has now fully benefited at this point from ​the cup-with-handle inspired breakout of early 2026. The stock has given up its 21-day EMA and appears to be headed for a test from above of its 50-day SMA (blue line). Should the stock fail that test, my plan is to exit the balance of my position and perhaps re-enter at the 200-day SMA (red line).

It took a while, but this one finally paid off or at least kept up with the markets. Currently, the position is up 27.6%, which is very good, but not outstanding for an entire year. Should professional managers not defend the stock at that red line, I do not want to risk profits that really took more than 13 months to build. Then, I thought, maybe I should give you guys, my readers, a wake-up call on this one. 

Have a great holiday weekend, gang. Sarge out.

At the time of publication, Guilfoyle was long KEY equity.