A New Record, Yes, but Have You Seen the Volume?
Six days of green, but something has finally changed.
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The Market
Six straight days of green. Oh, they tried to make ‘em close red on the S&P, but they were having none of that. But did anything change?
Well, funny thing, yes, something did change. Perhaps change is not the proper word, but for the last nine trading days, no matter what Nasdaq did, net breadth was to the positive side of the ledger. Even one day when the Nasdaq lost 81 points on the day, net volume was positive.
But today, Nasdaq closed the day up 70 points, and the SOX was solidly green, yet net volume was to the downside. Not only was it the first time in nine trading days it has done this, but the first time in months it has done so with the index positive on the day.
Were penny stocks back? Oh yes, they have been with us for exactly a week now. Every single day. Last week, while the NYSE hit the lowest trading volume since June 6th, Nasdaq had over ten billion shares trade each and every day. Today was no exception.
So yes, I think it’s noteworthy that the up volume on Nasdaq was only 35% today because that’s not something we’ve seen during this creep upward.
The Utes tagged a brand new all-time high last week and have been down ever since. Three percent is not a big deal, but to make a new high, close down on the day, and keep going down, is worth paying attention to. Support at 1040-1060 is what I’m eyeing. The top of the range is obviously better than the bottom.
The other thing that happened today was the dollar rallied. But it still has not gotten over that 99 level it got to a week or so ago. I still think it will, but thus far, I’m still waiting. Also, note over 99 is not a breakout per se, just another bite out of resistance.
New Ideas
I have been waiting not so patiently for two months now for OIH to close that gap near 260. It came awfully close today. I still like it, but I am going to take a few profits here and then use a stop under 250 on the remainder.
Today’s Indicator
The 30-day moving average of the advance/decline line remains overbought.
Q&A/Reader’s Feedback
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Note most of these stocks have earnings coming up within the next week. I do my best not to ‘play’ earnings because I feel it is a coin toss.
There is something about that 11.50-12 area on Nu Holdings NU that the chart likes. If it comes down there, the risk/reward would be decent because if it breaks it, you know you’re wrong. Otherwise, the chart mostly looks like it is going nowhere.
Semtch SMTC has reached its target off that head and shoulders bottom (blue line) that it completed. Maybe it goes on to fill that tiny gap at 60 or even just over 70 but I would err on the side of taking a little something off the table here and then using a trailing stop with the remainder.
Axon Enterprise AXON has support here. I would like to see it slosh back and forth for a bit, not breaking 700, so it can build some momentum to rally again. Either way, use a stop under 700.
DuPont DD looks to me like it’s trapped between 72 and 78 for now. It reached its first target and has a lot of resistance to chew through. A trip to that blue line is not out of the question. If it gaps up over 80, I would not scoff at it, but right here it looks like so much in the market: exhausted.
Coinbase COIN hit its measured target a week or so ago, so now I think profits should be taken and we wait for another setup. It’s been a great run. If the stock comes down to 350, then rallies poorly, it will have a head and shoulders top. Oh, it might not do that, but with earnings coming on Thursday, I see no edge in getting long.
