A List of Post Vacation Surprises
As Helene Meisler returns from a much-deserved vacation, she offers a list of surprising market analyses.
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The Market
It’s not often the market surprises me as much as it did last week, but I was definitely surprised. I had thought that the market was vulnerable to a chop or even some more downside, and that would set us up to be short-term oversold heading into this week.
Yet the market spurted higher almost every single day last week. But that’s not what surprised me that much. What surprised me is that sentiment doesn’t seem to have gotten significantly more bullish.
For example, the folks at NAAIM had lifted their exposure the prior week to 94 only to take it back down to 81 last week. Or the fact that the equity put/call ratio did not register a reading in the 40s all week. In fact, in this entire rally, we’ve seen the equity put/call ratio in the 40s only a handful of times, and unless my data is incorrect, it hasn’t been in the 40s since mid-May.
When I left for vacation, the DSI for the Nasdaq and the S&P were 76 and 77, respectively. Again, we had a big rally last week, and the DSI readings have only moved to 82 for the S&P and 80 for Nasdaq.
I am also surprised that while bonds have rallied a bit, mostly they have languished in that 4.25-4.50% range on the Ten Year. I am also surprised that the buck collapsed last week. I can’t get it out of my head that it has a good setup for a rally. Yet it keeps getting sold.
I am also surprised that Apple is still 200. It languishes. It just goes to show you how a darling can become so ordinary. Maybe former Mag 7 Alphabet should go in that category as well because I thought for sure by now it would be over 180.
Or that Nasdaq and the S&P would make new highs but Amazon would not. Nor would Meta, but it is close. And heck, did you think cult favorite Tesla would be left in the lurch?
I am also surprised that breadth has made a new high along with the indexes yet the NYSE has only managed to have 125 stocks making new highs. There were over 450 stocks making new highs last time we were up here in the fall.
New Ideas
I will forever be a contrarian in my thinking and that sometimes gets me in trouble but I see that base building in Ford F and I see that Barron’s puts the auto stocks (not favorably) as their cover story and I think what if Ford can fill that gap?
Today’s Indicator
The new highs are discussed above for the NYSE. Nasdaq’s highs are a little better at 238 but its Hi-Lo is still heading down for now.
Q&A/Reader’s Feedback
I will get back to your requests tomorrow as I was delayed returning home from vacation.
