Will It Be One or None From the Fed in December?
A bevy of Fed speakers are making the rounds Wednesday — and we're listening for clues.
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With less than a month to go until the Fed renders its next monetary policy decision, we will be listening closely for the latest thoughts on job creation, inflation, and what that means for a potential rate cut today from four Fed speakers. We know Fed Governor Stephen Miran is going to make the case for a 50-basis-point rate cut, but given the recent inflation data, odds are that is off the table.
Some may point to yesterday’s Weekly Employment Change report from ADP that showed an average loss of 11,250 jobs for the four weeks ending October 25. This is a relatively new data set, and that means we will want to see how the data evolve in the weeks leading up to the Fed’s December policy meeting. It’s that trend, along with ADP’s November Employment Change Report and November ISM data, that will paint a fuller picture of job creation, assuming we do not receive the September, October, and November Employment Reports ahead of that monetary policy meeting.
As we drink in comments from the other Fed speakers, we’ll be delineating between arguments for another 25-basis point rate and the potential for the Fed to leave the Fed Funds rate alone in December.
