What March Retail Sales Tell Us About 4 Portfolio Holdings

The March Retail Sales report was published Tuesday morning, and the headline figures, up 1.7% month over month and 4.0% year over year, were stronger than the market forecasts. Before we get into it, we have to factor in the 15.5% sequential increase and the more than 18% year-over-year rise for gas station sales. The driver behind that was the March surge in fuel prices, both gasoline and diesel.

Stripping out gas station sales, total retail and food service sales still grew on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis, but at a slower pace compared to February. Going one step further, food services & drinking place March revenue were little changed compared to February, indicating consumers were cutting back on dining out in March.

Retail-only sales in March grew 4.2% compared to year-ago levels with notable strength in electronics & appliance stores (+5.2%), clothing & accessories (+7.2%), and non-store retailers (+10.1%). Laggards were motor vehicle sales (-2.1%), food & beverage stores (0.0%), general merchandise stores (+2.5%), and department stores (0.8%).

Costco and Amazon

Perusing those figures, you can quickly deduce that Costco’s (COST) adjusted U.S. comp sales of 6.2% for March means it continued to take wallet share in March. The 22.5% adjusted digital sales figure for March indicated Costco was also eating the lunch of other digital retailers.

As we think about that 10.1% year-over-year increase in non-store retail sales, it would behoove us to remember that Amazon (AMZN) held its 2026 Big Spring Sale for seven days spanning March 25-31. While much attention is being paid attention today to Amazon’s AWS win with Anthropic, the findings in the March Retail Sales, including January-March 2026 non-store retail sales climbing 9.6% year over year, bodes very well for its North American segment.

With Amazon’s shares deep in an overbought condition with an RSI reading over 75, we’ll reiterate our Two rating after having recently locked in a more than 200% gain on a slug of shares.

TJX

Moving on, let’s talk quickly about year-over-year gains in clothing & accessory spending, first in February and now March. In February year-over-year retail spending in that category rose 8.7% and while it dipped to 7.2% growth in March, it’s clear that consumers shifted from dining out to spend more on clothing.

Saddled with higher fuel prices, which propelled those gas station sales mentioned above, odds are digital shopping platforms like Amazon, and Costco benefited, but also likely off-price retailers such as TJX (TJX) . We suspect this given the increasing commentary of late about consumers cutting back, being more mindful with their spending dollars.

Should the market be underwhelmed by forthcoming U.S.-Iran trade talks or the conflict extending further, a pullback in TJX shares to near the 100-day moving average at $155.81 would not go unnoticed by us.

Two Final Thoughts on March Retail Sales

First, year-over-year increase of 3.7% in total retail and food service sales for Q1 2026 bodes well for transaction-related revenue at American Express (AXP) . Reinforcing that view, Q1 2026 retail and food service sales climbed 1.2% compared to Q4 2025 levels. Some may quibble about the underlying revelations in the March data, but no matter how you slice the numbers, you still have to pay, even in today’s increasingly digitally centered payment or tap-to-pay world.

Two, that overall spending increase will be a positive factor in Q1 2026 GDP revisions — it's just how the math works. However, with consumers spending more on fuel, and potentially other items as companies lift prices to fend off margin pressures and pass along their fuel bills, we’ll want to keep a close watch on consumer spending. That makes next week’s March Personal Income & Spending report one to focus on.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMZN, AXP, COST, and TJX.