We're Raising Our Price Target for This Tech-Driven Holding
As we hike our target, we also tempering dividend expectations for the position to reflect investment opportunities and a note redemption.
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OpenAI - Sky
Following up on our initial comments Tuesday about SuRo Capital’s (SSSS) December-quarter results and subsequent to management’s earnings call last night, we are lifting our price target to $14 from $12.
The increase reflects SuRo’s December-quarter-ending net asset value (NAV) per share of $8.09 and compensates for Q1 2026 financings for OpenAI and Vast Data. As we’ve discussed many times, because SuRo’s net asset value reflects quarter-end figures, we have to account for subsequent financings and the corresponding impact on valuation figures for some of the underlying holdings in its investment portfolio.
With that in mind, the NAV per share of $8.09 does not include the more recent $830 billion post money valuation of OpenAI nor does it include the Vast Data capital raising of $1 billion, putting its valuation near $30 billion. Vast has developed a data storage and retrieval platform that has become a critical component of modern AI infrastructure and last week announced an expanded relationship with Nvidia (NVDA) , which is also an investor in the company.
Much like OpenAI, this latest investment round in Vast saw a large jump from its $9.1 billion valuation exiting 2023, the time of its most recent funding round, to the one just announced this week. Some back-of-the-napkin math implies SuRo’s position in OpenAI is now valued closer to $70 million compared to $42.2 million exiting December 2025, and we estimate its position in Vast Data is now closer to $40 million compared to $12.2 million last year. That additional $110 million equates to around $4.35 per share in net asset value.
Reading between the lines, the delta relative to SuRo’s $5-$6.50 incremental NAV per share figure suggests other financings are underway for other holdings in its investment portfolio. SuRo's other key holdings include Whoop, Blink Health, Canva, Learno and the recently added AI infrastructure company TensorWave. As additional financings are announced, we’ll revisit our SSSS price target as warranted.
Dividend Distributions
While SuRo discussed its dividend distributions for last year as it wrapped up its comments for 2025, we didn’t hear much about future payments other than the usual rhetoric about them being tied to monetization of public securities and being paid at the discretion of the Board.
On the one hand this is a bit disappointing, but we've noted the folks at SuRo are prudent stewards of their portfolio, which includes committing up to $20 million in capital to TensorWave subject to certain hurdles being cleared at the company. So far, SuRo has invested $5 million in TensorWave. It has also worked to slim down the outstanding amount of its 6% notes due this year by repurchasing $3.9 million in Q4 2025. That leaves roughly $35.8 million left to be paid by the end of this year.
While some may not like it, we have to factor in SuRo’s need to continue to re-plant its investment portfolio and note obligations as we contemplate future dividend payments. As we think about it, given the ~$49 million in cash on the balance sheet exiting 2025, and the $17.8 million of public securities held in CoreWeave (CRWV) , GrabAGun (PEW) subject to lockup or other sales restrictions, SuRo should have ample funds to redeem the remaining 6% notes outstanding.
One might think SuRo could then fund dividend payments with the remaining cash on hand, especially if it cashes out of that $17.8 million in public securities, but odds are it will want to keep cash on hand should it need to deploy some or all of that remaining $15 million earmarked for TensoreWave or other capital raises for existing positions. There is also the possibility of another portfolio holding, as SuRo is always on the lookout for new candidates.
This is not a bad problem to have but it is a balancing act that can make for timing issues when it comes to dividend payments. As we think about the coming 12-18 months and potential IPOs for several of SuRo’s portfolio holdings, ranging from OpenAI and Canva to Vast, Whoop and a few others, the prospects for future dividends remain in place.
We’ll also remind you that our play with SSSS in the Pro Portfolio is a total return one. For newer members, that means a combination of stock price appreciation and dividend payments and yes, from time to time, the thrust of those two factors can be lopsided but we it’s hard to argue with where SuRo’s portfolio is headed.
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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long SSSS.
