We're Raising Our Costco Price Target as It Laps Tough Sales Comps

Raising a target

Last night, Costco (COST) delivered its latest monthly sales report, confirming it continues to win consumer wallet share even as it laps challenging 2025 comps. In response, we are nudging our COST price target to $1,150 from $1,100 and lifting our panic point to $900 from $825.

By the numbers, Costco reported an 11.3% year-over-year increase in sales to $28.4 billion for the five weeks ended April 5, which included the Easter holiday. In 2025, Easter was on April 20, which means we could see a somewhat muted year-over-year comparison with Costco’s April sales report. We say “somewhat” because of the impact of higher gas and related prices this year, which is a catalyst for consumers when it comes to Costco and other methods of stretching disposable spending dollars.

On a geographic basis, Costco’s headline sales rose 8.7% in the U.S. with Canada up 10.7%, and Other International up 11.9% for a total company comp sales figure up 9.4% for the five-week period. Digital sales climbed 23.3%.

The more examined monthly comp sales figures, the ones that are adjusted to exclude gas prices and foreign exchange, were as follows: U.S. +6.2%, Canada +5.4%, Other International +6.6%, and total company +6.2%. Digital sales on that adjusted basis rose 22.5%.

As we like to say, context is critical, and with that in mind, we saw Costco’s adjusted U.S. company sales tick higher compared to 5.2% in February and lap the 8.7% figure posted in the five-week period that ended on April 6, 2025. Remember, that year-ago report benefited from pull-forward spending ahead of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs. Stacking the 2026 figure +6.2% on top of that, in our view, is very telling.

Closing out this monthly update, Costco noted it had 928 active warehouse locations, up from 903 as of April 6, 2025, and 924 at the end of February 2026. That means Costco is expected to open 24 additional locations in the current fiscal year, and we’d remind you of its plans to open “30+ new openings per year in the coming years.” More locations mean more members, which translates into higher membership fee revenue, something we recognize as Costco’s highest margin business and a big generator of pre-tax income.

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long COST.