VIDEO: Our Roadmap for a Tech-Heavy Start to March

In today’s Pro Portfolio video, Chris Versace discusses re-kindled AI concerns that are pressuring the final day of trading in February. And with a new month of trading about to begin, Chris lays out what we’ll be focusing on as we dig into the usual start-of-the-month economic data. 

He also discusses Apple’s  (AAPL)  big week of product announcements, and the one thing it could showcase that gets investors excited. 

Chris also sets the stage for another big week of tech earnings from Broadcom  (AVGO)  and Marvell  (MRVL) , and the Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, detailing what we’re likely to hear and what we’ll be listening for.

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AAPL, NFLX, NVDA, META, MSFT, GOOGL, AVGO, MRVL, and SSSS.

Transcript

CHRIS VERSACE: Hey, everybody, Chris Versace here. Friday, February 27, final trading day of the month of February. What a February it has been. And we are, as you can probably tell, closing it off with the market, trading off, reacting or, arguably, overreacting to the announcement made by Bloch that it's going to ax let's just call it a significant number of people. No doubt, this is simply rekindling the AI-related job concerns that we discussed in our opening comments, ones that have plagued different parts of the market over the last several trading days.

Now, look, in our opening comments, we did share with you that, yes, do we think that AI adoption, AI usage, it's going to drive productivity and likely temper hiring decisions in certain parts of the economy? Yes. Is it going to create jobs in other parts of the economy? Most likely. That is the trend that we have seen with other technology-related developments. But again, as I discussed in our opening comments this morning, this seems like a very aggressive move from a company that simply hasn't been performing well-- no revenue growth in 2025-- and one that is admittedly, now we've seen, been extremely overstaffed.

But we know that we are, and still, in the midst of a anxious market, arguably nervous market, or one that reacts with a quick knee jerk, not exactly always thinking things through. We saw that really with the software stocks, when we think about what Anthropic said earlier this week, how they're partnering with software companies to deliver better tools. I think there's still a lot of anxiety out there in the market. And I can say that because we look at the VIX, back over 21.

Now, is this going to lead to some overly pressured stocks that shouldn't happen? Certainly. Potentially, American Express is a great example of giving its membership business model. And as we've talked about with you in the past, the volume of benefits that a member gets really offsets the cost of the card. So I do think that's overdone. We'll have more to say as we move through next week's data, and I'll talk about that in a minute, but just a great example that I'd like to point about the knee jerk reaction that we're in with the market.

SuRo Capital shares, they are trading off, even though OpenAI closed its latest round of funding with a post-money valuation of around $830 billion, up from $500 billion in October and up significantly from where SuRo Capital discussed its last net asset value per share figure that was predicated on $300 billion for OpenAI exiting the September quarter. There's also some speculation that, as part of the terms of OpenAI's closing this latest round, that it will go public. I would argue that's another positive for SuRo Capital, its dividend stream.

But I also would say, too, that the upsized round and the eventual IPO-- really, more the eventual IPO-- will also be a positive for our shares of Microsoft, NVIDIA, and, of course, Amazon. Ultimately, my friends, will calmer heads prevail? I think they will. They usually do over time. But we're going to use that time to digest what's coming and position the portfolio accordingly.

So with that, let's talk about what's coming, especially next week. Over the weekend and into the next couple of days of the start of March, we will be paying close attention to US-Iran negotiations. We talked about this in our opening comments this morning. We are seeing a further ratcheting up of tensions with the Israeli embassy being vacated. Whether or not this leads to something we'll have to pay close attention to over the weekend. But we do know that US and Iran are poised to continue their trade negotiations next week. Let's see what happens on the talks and go from there.

Next week, we also have the usual start of the month economic data, February PMI data from ISM. We'll be looking at job creation and inflation, especially after the hotter-than-expected January PPI report that really pushes back on any notion that the Fed is going to need to deliver any rate cuts anytime soon. I wouldn't be surprised if we see mortgage rates tick a little higher on that news, as well.

Next week, we also have multiple looks at the tone of job creation in the month of February. We will get the ones from ISM, but we also have ADP's February assessment of job creation and, of course, the February employment report. Across all of those, we'll be focusing on the vector, the velocity, as we like to say.

In this case, when we're talking about jobs, it's the number of jobs added. In some cases, where are those jobs being added? What are we seeing about wage growth? And especially when it comes to the February employment report, what revisions are we seeing in the prior data?

As we move through all of those pieces of information, we'll be thinking about what does it mean for the economy, vector velocity? What does it mean for rate cuts? What does it mean for the consumer. And given the topic of jobs, potentially, what could it mean for the housing market?

We also have Apple making multiple product announcements next week, most likely some new Macs, new iPads, and a few other things. Could we see a new low-end iPhone? Wouldn't be surprised. But all in all, I have to say that this is really going to be part of the kickoff for the big product refresh that Apple is doing. And we talked with you about this back in December.

Now, could we see something new? Possible. But I would argue with you that, for Apple to unveil smart glasses, the speculated AI pin or even AI-enabled AirPods, it's first going to have to showcase the revamped AI-enabled Siri in Apple Intelligence. Is it possible that we see that discussed in beta form next week? It is. It is certainly possible. I will say that, as a beta Apple software user, I haven't seen it yet across the most recent beta software for the Mac, the iPhone, or the iPad.

Now, if Apple does show this, and it sets a definitive timeline for the initial product, we could see some excitement build. But if it doesn't discuss it at all, odds are the market's reaction will be a lot more subdued given what is announced. Again, new low-end iPhone, Macs, iPads, they're all nice.

But when we think about the key for Apple, really two things-- services, obviously, but really, the iPhone. And it's going to take Apple finally showing a revamped AI-enabled Siri and delighting consumers to get folks excited about the Apple iPhone upgrade cycle. That's key. That's what we're waiting for. Let's see what they bring next week.

I also touched on this next point in our opening comments today, but next week, we also have quarterly results from Broadcom and Marvell. Safe to say the reported quarters should be very robust ones. We can talk about the data that we got from TSM, capital spending numbers from the hyperscalers and the like, and of course, NVIDIA's most recent quarterly results. I also think that the guidance should be vibrant. It should point to further gains on a year-over-year basis.

Why am I saying this? Again, think about that. ramping hyperscaler capital spending. Think of Google's deal with Meta for AI chips and other ones, NVIDIA's guidance, especially with NVIDIA being capacity-constrained. That does bode well for Broadcom and for Marvell. But also, too, let's think about the comments that we shared with you this morning about Dell's server guidance. All of that bodes well for the reported quarter and for the guidance, again, at Marvell and Broadcom.

However, like we saw with NVIDIA, there are some folks out there that get overly aggressive-- too aggressive, I would argue-- with their expectations. What this means is that we'll be checking the whisper numbers ahead of time, and use them to discuss with you how the market could react to the quarterly results from Broadcom and Marvell next week. Our view is we continue to see rising demand for AI and data center chips, no question. These companies should be extremely well positioned, again, because NVIDIA is capacity-constrained.

But we also see demand for their networking chips and others, again, produced by Marvell and Broadcom, but also, yes, NVIDIA. And if you missed our analysis of NVIDIA's quarter last night, I would urge you to take a hard read at it, spend a lot of time walking through the different things. And I think you'll find it very helpful and informative.

And speaking about NVIDIA, CEO Jensen Huang will be speaking at the Morgan Stanley Tech Conference next week. Now, we all know that the market and market watchers like to really focus in on what Jensen has to say, and he could drop some interesting things. But I would argue that, between NVIDIA's earnings report this week and the upcoming GTC conference in mid-March, the odds that Jensen is going to be breaking a lot of new ground next week, probably low. I think he's going to want to really hold it for the GTC event. Again, that's in mid-March.

But at the same Morgan Stanley conference, many other tech companies will be presenting. And that means we'll be listening for updated comments about the current quarter, demand, orders, backlog, RPOs, and comments about customer activity. That'll be some of the things that we listen for. And yes, we will be connecting the dots back to not only some of our portfolio companies that are reporting at the conference, but comments from others, customers, competitors, suppliers that might help us refine our picture for the current quarter for the portfolio's holdings.

Yes, my friends, it is going to be a busy start of the month, the last month of the current quarter. But rest assured, as we tend to do, we will be guiding you through it. One quick thing on the housekeeping front, it is the last day of February, as I mentioned. The February Roundup, the February Monthly Roundup will be coming at you on Monday as I finally-- you can probably see this here behind me, you can see this mess-- finally moving out of the house that we sold and moving into some temporary housing.

I will be out on Monday. But don't worry. We will have you covered. I will see you again on Tuesday. But have a great weekend. Rest assured, if anything happens, we got your back, Jack.