Charting the S&P 500: Too Much Uncertainty Puts the Market Uptrend at Risk
Stocks are skidding to the finish line for the first half of the year.
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Can the bulls pull off a positive first half of 2025? There are only a handful of trading days left before we turn the page on June and get the second half underway.
The very tiny candle printed this past week could be interpreted different ways, but for us this looks to be a red flag. Sure, the index moved up to tag the uptrend line, which remains an extension. There are different scenarios that can play out, but if the bulls are not aggressive here then we can see some downside action pulling the markets back before second-quarter earnings season gets started in a fortnight.
Indicators remain bullish but overbought here, the MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) looks tired as does stochastics, as momentum is starting to fade from the stock market. We know that money flows matter and can carry the markets to new heights, but even that has started to fade after a great start in 2025.
With the indexes up a paltry 1% or so and limited visibility in the macro, the wall of worry remains up. If there is some clarity soon that wall could be a nice catalyst to move higher, but not yet.
