These 8 Items Are Shaping the Stock Market Monday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Monday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures, while off their lows last night and early this morning, point to a lower market open for the final trading week of February.

1. Gold rose, and the dollar fell on Monday after Donald Trump deepened uncertainty over global trade by imposing a new 15 per cent tariff following a landmark US Supreme Court ruling that his previous policy was unlawful. (FT) Section 122 allows for tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days. After that period, Trump has said those levies will be replaced with a longer-lasting tariff authority—Section 301 of the Trade Act. That provision would allow for more permanent levies, but requires monthslong investigations before tariffs can be imposed, which Trump hinted at in his Saturday post. (WSJ)

Gold and silver prices are moving higher, as is the Volatility Index, a combination that tells us uncertainty is back in the market, and a quick check at the Fear & Greed Index tells us Fear is once again driving the market. The overriding question is what’s to come in five months, what could it mean for international trade, inflation, and further rate cuts, the economy, and if you’re in Washington, the mid-term elections?

2. The European Union is poised to freeze the ratification process of its trade deal with the US and is seeking more details from President Donald Trump’s administration on its new tariff program. Zeljana Zovko, the lead trade negotiator in the European People’s Party group on the US deal, said in an interview with Bloomberg that “we have no other option” but to delay the approval process to seek clarity on the situation. (Bloomberg)

Here’s the thing, the European Union is the biggest source of U.S. imports, accounting for ~20% per data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The question is whether the European Parliament will delay work on the trade deal until the European Union receives more clarity on the new tariffs. Based on the potential multi-month timetable discussed above, to say this could throw a wrench in company planning could be a bit of an understatement. As we think about that, let’s remember other key importers of U.S. goods and services — Mexico at ~15%, Canada around 11%, and China at ~10%, per the same Census Bureau data.

3. Home Depot reports results on Tuesday, followed by rival Lowe’s a day later. Discounter TJX, which runs TJ Maxx and Marshalls, also reports on Wednesday, while results from Urban Outfitters and shoe designer Steve Madden rounds out the week. Executives at those chains seem likely to face questions about how the ruling, which struck down Trump’s sweeping emergency-powers tariffs issued last year, will affect financial forecasts, shipping, prices, production, and their bottom lines overall. (MarketWatch)

Building on our first two points above, other market watchers and I will be closely listening for management comments about this shifting landscape and how they account for it in their guidance for the coming quarters. Typically, uncertainty is met with cautious comments, but remember, over the last several weeks, we’ve heard about fresh price increases from companies. Whether the changing tariff landscape escalates that effort is something we’ll be watching for.

4. The price of major cryptocurrencies were falling early Monday, amid market nervousness linked to the status of U.S. trade tariffs. Bitcoin was down by 3% to $65,805 over the past 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data. During that period, it also dipped below $65,000. Crypto-related stocks were also bruised. Robinhood, a digital asset brokerage, was down 1.3% in premarket trading, while Strategy —the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin—edged lower by 1.7%. (Barron’s)

As you know, we have no dog in the crypto fight, and we could see major cryptocurrencies drift until we know the fate of the digital asset bill known as the Clarity Act. As we discussed last week, there is a tentative March 1 timetable, but given recent developments, we would not be shocked to see that slip.

5. Over 40 million people remained under a blizzard warning on Monday morning, after the storm dumped more than a foot of snow in some places and strangled transit in major metropolitan areas. (NY Times)

Flight and train cancellations abound, and we hope the impact on members affected is minor. However, this latest storm, combined with the late January ones, will be a headwind for current quarter results for airline companies but also construction-related ones, both non-residential and residential.

6. Nvidia chips for laptop computers are set to hit the market this year in products from Dell, Lenovo, and others, a return to the consumer PC market for the leader in artificial-intelligence chips. (WSJ)

A bit of a surprise move, but one that will challenge Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) , Intel (INTC) , and Qualcomm (QCOM) . We see it as another reason supporting our January move to close out our QCOM position. Nvidia (NVDA) could talk more about this when it reports its quarterly results after Wednesday’s market close, but the market will be far more focused on what is delivered and forecasted for the AI and data center business, which accounts for ~90% of overall revenue. Coming off the pronounced step up in hyperscaler capital spending levels for this year, can Nvidia deliver guidance that tops not just consensus expectations but also whisper expectations that can break the stock out of the trading range it's been in since mid-November?

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December, January), Factor Orders (December), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February).

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: Domino’s (DPZ) , Freshpet (FRPT) , Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) , Hims & Hers (HIMS) , Ovinitiv (OVV) , USA Rare Earth (USAR) .

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long NVDA, and TJX.