These 8 Items Are Shaping the Stock Market Monday
Wall Street’s Super Bowl superstition, the 'Takaichi trade', gold rebounds, and more headlines moving the market today.
You're reading 0 of 1 free page.
Register to read more or Unlock Pro — 50% Off Ends Soon
These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of the trading Monday. As we share this collection of market drivers, following Friday’s snapback rally, U.S. equity futures across the board point to some of those gains being given back when the market opens.
1. The Seattle Seahawks defeated the New England Patriots 29-13 tonight to win Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara. (The New York Times)
We’ll spare you our views on the lackluster performance through the first three quarters of “The Big Game.” What we will share, however, is some Wall Street superstition that goes like this: U.S. equities tend to rise in years when the Super Bowl is won by a team from the National Football Conference (NFC), while an American Football Conference (AFC) victory supposedly signals a weaker year for stocks. Per data from Investopedia, from 1967 to 2025, the indicator had 71% accuracy. Since 2005, it has been accurate about 40% of the time.
For those wondering, the Seahawks are from the NFC, which means, if you believe the superstitions, we should have a good year ahead of us. Over here at TheStreet Pro Portfolio, we’ll stick to the data and follow the money.
2. Japanese stocks jumped to record levels after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide win in a snap general election as investors bet on her vision of a “strong and prosperous” nation…the “Takaichi trade” was driven by the prospect that the prime minister’s unprecedented majority would allow her to implement economic stimulus and follow through on her promise to drive corporate investment in key tech sectors. (FT)
Takaichi campaigned on a tougher stance toward China, rebuilding Japan's military, stricter immigration rules, and economic reforms. If this sounds familiar, you won’t be surprised to learn Takaichi had the “complete and total endorsement” of President Donald Trump. Japanese stocks moved higher on the news, fueled by expectations of tax cuts and higher government spending.
3. Gold climbed above $5,000 an ounce, as dip-buyers returned to the market after an exceptionally volatile week for precious metals. Bullion rose as much as 1.7% on Monday, recovering some more ground after a historic rout at the end of last month. The metal has recovered around half of the losses sustained since it plunged from an all-time high hit on Jan. 29. Silver also advanced. (Bloomberg)
Gold's rebound comes as some dip buyers have likely waded into the shiny metal following the ~10% move off its record set in late January. But to that, we can add continued market uncertainty as well as Japan’s election result. As we noted above, strengthened expectations of looser fiscal policy put additional pressure on the yen, which is good for gold and the related holdings we have in the current EPS Diplomats basket. Despite that recent selloff, gold is still up double-digits YTD.
4. Jack Dorsey’s Block Inc. has been notifying hundreds of employees that their jobs may be eliminated during annual performance reviews as the payments firm embarks on a broader business overhaul. Up to 10% of Block’s workforce is at risk of being cut, according to people familiar with the matter who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive information. (Bloomberg)
Based on Block's headcount toward the end of last year, that would imply around 1,000 folks being let go. Not the biggest layoff figures we’ve seen from an individual company of late, but it will add to the growing malaise about the jobs market. We continue to think the more headlines we get like this, the more likely we will see consumers, especially lower-to middle-income, remain selective in their spending. Now for the January Employment Report on Wednesday…
5. Pessimism is increasing across the Capitol over lawmakers’ chances of reaching a deal to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as they point fingers over the lack of talks and float canceling the upcoming recess. Senators return to Washington on Monday facing a sprint to strike a deal and avoid a shutdown that would affect agencies including Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Customs and Border Protection (CBP), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and the Coast Guard. (The Hill)
With DHS funding set to expire Friday, and concerns over key sticking points still in place, another shutdown is on the horizon. With multiple days until that deadline, a deal could be had, but odds are it will once again come down to the wire. We’ll be following the conversations with an eye toward the final details.
6. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has moved up his visit to Washington and is expected to meet with President Trump on Wednesday to discuss the negotiations with Iran, the prime minister's office said in a statement. (Axios)
This follows what was reported as “very good talks” between Iran and the U.S. late last week, but with the Trump-Netanyahu meeting being moved up from its original February 18 date, we will be watching to see if a tonal shift occurs and what that could mean for the market and oil prices.
7. Economic data today, per TipRanks: Consumer Inflation Expectations (January), multiple Fed speakers.
8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: Barrick Gold (B) , Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) , Monday.com (MNDY); onsemi (ON) .
