Preparing for SpaceX, Warsh's Rate Cut Outlook and More on Tuesday

Tuesday, April 21, has the potential to be a big day for the stock market, with the direction determined by these three factors.

1. SpaceX’s Analyst Day

First, as we’ve already discussed with you, SpaceX is holding its analyst day on Tuesday, and we will be tracking that event as well as what’s revealed very closely.

Our reasons for that are ones we’ve discussed before with you, but to jog your memory, SpaceX is expected to be one of it not the largest IPOs and that means potentially very fat investment banking fees for Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) .

Should the event boost investor enthusiasm for the eventual IPO, that would likely help the tone of the overall IPO market, one that has been chugging along rather nicely. We continue to play close attention to that beyond our MS and BAC positions, primarily because of the several holdings in the SuRo Capital (SSSS) investment portfolio that are primed for IPOs and subsequent monetization events.

And Amazon’s (AMZN) announced purchase of Globalstar (GSTAR) gives us another reason to more than gloss over SpaceX’s financial statements and comments about the coming quarters.

2. Kevin Warsh Confirmation Hearing

Second, the confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh begins on Tuesday. Per Warsh’s opening statement, which was obtained and published by Politico on Monday, we should expect him to stress the Fed’s independence:

"… monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation’s interest . . . their decisions the product of analytic rigor, meaningful deliberation, and unclouded decision-making.

"I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials — presidents, senators, or members of the House — state their views on interest rates. Central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all corners . . . humble enough to be open-minded to new ideas and new economic developments . . . wise enough to translate imperfect data into meaningful insight . . . and dedicated enough to make judgments faithfully and wisely.

"Simply stated, Fed independence is largely up to the Fed."

Those introductory comments will be followed by questions to Warsh from the Senate Banking committee, and odds are there will be a few attempts to probe his thoughts on current monetary policy and whether there is room to cut rates in 2026. The latest reading of the CME Fed Watch Tool shows the greatest probability for no rate cuts this year. Should Warsh signal that we could see one or some on the horizon, something President Trump has been vocal about for some time despite the inflation data of the last few months, we could see the market respond positively.

3. Earnings, Earnings, Earnings

Third, the Q1 2026 earnings season not only heats up on Tuesday, but a wider array of companies will be reporting. The list includes 3M (MMM) , DR Horton (DHI) , Danaher (DHR) , GE Aerospace (GE) , Northrop Grumman (NOC) , Quest Diagnostics (DGX) , Tractor Supply (TSCO) and United Health (UNH) .

As we saw with Netflix (NFLX) shares last week, the market is not looking past softer-than-expected guidance even if a company’s Q1 2026 results easily clear the expectations bar.

Should the factors we’ve discussed in Friday’s Weekly Roundup raise their heads in the guidance we hear from some or more than some of those companies on Tuesday, it will kick start the rethinking of 1H 2026 S&P 500 EPS expectations we’ve been ruminating on with you.

Our Plan for Tuesday

As we think about it, Tuesday has the potential to be a volatile day, and by that, we mean one with a few market swings in it.

We’ll start the day looking for any progress (or lack thereof) on the U.S.-Iran front, and that effort will be accompanied by the morning’s earnings reports. Warsh’s confirmation hearing is set to begin at 10 a.m. ET, but the meatier comments aren’t likely to be had until closer to 10:30 a.m. ET. No start time for SpaceX’s analyst day was made public, but odds are rumblings will emerge later in the day.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long MS, BAC, SSSS, AMZN and NFLX.