Poll: Trump's Fed Chair Decision and Which Report Will Move the Market Most?

We have the results from the poll question we asked folks earlier this week, and as you can see below, the majority does not think President Trump will announce his Federal Reserve chair pick to replace current chair Jerome Powell before the Fed makes its next policy decision next week.

Thursday brought the October and November core PCE figures, which, as you can see below, dipped and rebounded back to match the 2.8% year-over-year figure recorded for September. That inched up the probability the Federal Reserve won’t deliver a January rate cut to more than 97%, compared to more than 95% a week ago.

In today’s January Flash PMI report, S&P shared the following on the topic of inflation:

"Input cost inflation remained elevated in January, though moderated from December’s seven-month high to sit at the weakest since last April. The moderation reflecting a cooling of input cost inflation in the service sector, as manufacturing input prices rose at the fastest pace since last September, once again widely blamed on tariffs."

However, the report went on to say:

"The stubbornly elevated level of input cost inflation fed through to a further widespread rise in selling prices for goods and services. January’s rise in average prices charged was slightly weaker than seen in December but still among the largest recorded over the last three years."

That tells us inflation remains stubborn.

On the subject of January job creation, the Flash PMI report found:

"Employment rose only slightly in January following a similarly weak increase reported in December. The near-stalled job market reflected concerns from companies over rising costs and softer sales growth in recent months. Only a marginal rise in payroll numbers was reported across the service sector while manufacturing jobs growth weakened to a six-month low."

That implies a slow rate of job creation, but with the next two weeks bringing earnings from more than 55% of the S&P 500, we will be listening for multiple things, ranging from AI adoption, margin expansion prospects, pricing, and the like, but also job cuts. Setting the stage for that, we are reading that, after letting go of 14,000 employees late last year, Amazon (AMZN) is looking to sack another 15,000 or so, bringing the total to around 30,000 over the last several months.

You may be tempted to think some of that is the removal of seasonal workers, and there could be some truth to that, but odds are there is something more afoot. We expect to hear more about this when Amazon reports next week, and we suspect CEO Andy Jassy will be talking about Amazon’s internal AI efforts.

We can also add reports that Citigroup (C) is expected to lay off more employees in March following a round of about 1,000 job cuts this month. And as we think about the comments we shared about targeted operating leverage by PNC (PNC) in Friday's video, the fact that one of a bank’s largest cost centers is people, odds are it will be joining the ranks announcing layoffs before too long.

We’ll want to tally these and similar announcements to see if the monthly Employment Report may dip back into job loss territory. While not good for the economy, consumer spending and housing, if that were to happen, it could be a factor that leads the Fed to do more and sooner than the next expected rate cut in June.

Our New Poll

With Apple (AAPL) , Meta (META) , Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) reporting next week, which earnings report and guidance do you think will move the market the most?

https://www.twitter.com/ChrisJVersace/status/2014753616716837346

Cast your vote here using X or share your answer in the Comments section below. We’ll share the tally with members late next week once all four reports have been published and digested.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AMZN, AAPL and META.