New Pick-Up Points for Palantir, Meta and More as Overbought Market Surges Higher

The stock market is looking to continue its positive streak following the Sunday announcement that the European Union and the U.S. have a trade deal, and reports that U.S.-China officials are meeting this week to extend the current tariff pause past the mid-August deadline.

Both pieces of news are helping to tamp down lingering uncertainty in the market, which in our view should bring more clarity to companies about their back half of the year and initial take on 2026. We’ll want more details around the U.S.-China extension, but the longer that extension is, the better it should be for corporate planning and the market.

That’s the good news; the less-than-good news is coming into this week both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, based on their relative strength index (RSI) levels of 76.21 and 74.77, both, are overbought. The Fear & Greed Index at 74 is knocking on the door of Extreme Greed, and the Volatility Index at 15.22 is flashing market complacency.

Our take is that the EU and China trade-related headlines will push the market higher on Monday, pushing those RSI levels even higher, raising expectations for what’s to come over the ensuing days. That includes quarterly results from almost 20% of the S&P 500 holdings, better known to us as Apple AAPL, Microsoft MSFT, Meta META and Amazon AMZN. Coming into the current earnings season, based on the performance of the market and the substantial move in individual stocks, companies would need to deliver beat-and-raise quarters for their shares to power higher. Beat and the reiteration of guidance, as we’ve seen, has been treated more like an earnings miss or a guide down.

While the weekend trade developments are likely to lead to some re-thinking on forward guidance, we continue to think companies will need to deliver beat-and-raise quarters to drive their stock prices higher in the near-term. If not, as we saw with American Express AXP shares, there could be some nice opportunities ahead of us. At the same time, we will want to remain disciplined investors, paying attention to individual stock technicals as well as those for the market.

For example, in our updated Portfolio table below, you’ll notice the RSI levels for Eaton ETN, Alphabet GOOGL, Microsoft MSFT, Nvidia NVDA and United Rentals URI are above 70, indicating those shares are currently overbought. Looking at the Portfolio Holdings table, you’ll also notice that ETN, NVDA and now GOOGL shares have moved past 4% positions for Portfolio. While we are all for letting our winners run, should we see the market continue to hug higher even though we see more upside ahead for each of those stocks, the prudent move would be to use any additional market strength to lock in a slice of those gains.

We also have the Fed’s July policy decision mid-week, and despite last week’s comments from President Trump, data contained in the July Flash PMI report — the economy chugging along, employment improving, rising inflation pressures — doesn’t deliver a reason for the Fed to become incrementally dovish near-term. However, as the impacts of recent trade deals are felt, we could see the inflation data ahead start to cool. That could give reason for the Fed to consider a September or October rate cut.

The near-term concern is a market that looks forward to more dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell Wednesday afternoon, instead of his saying “need to see more data,” is likely to be disappointed. Another reason for us to tread carefully, especially if the market rips higher ahead of that Wednesday afternoon policy decision and press conference.

Updating Our Portfolio Table

Above, we referenced our updated table for the Portfolio’s holdings, but before we get to it, we want to call out some consensus EPS, panic point, as well as pick-up point changes. The lifted EPS expectations follow many of the revised higher price target increases we shared with you in Friday’s Weekly Roundup, and that, along with the continued move higher in the market, explains why we’re lifting multiple panic and pick-up points.

As we make these, we will also share that we intend to revisit our price targets for Microsoft and Meta as they report their quarterly results this week. Based on the collective capital spending comments from them, as well as Amazon and Alphabet, we will plan on doing the same for Eaton, Nvidia and Marvell MRVL shares. Finally, with Palantir PLTR shares bumping up against our price target, recent trade deals and the impact on defense spending are leading us to revisit that target as well. When we make those changes, we will likely revisit our panic points and pick-up points for those stocks yet again.

Consensus EPS Expectations

Amazon: 2025 is now at $6.26, up from $6.20; 2026 at $7.34 from $7.28

American Express: 2025 has been reset to $15.27 from $15.22

Alphabet: 2025 is now at $9.93, up from $9.60; 2026 is now at $10.51, from $10.19

Labcorp LH: 2025 is now at $16.28, up from $16.10; 2026 inched up to $17.67

Meta: 2025 is now at $25.89, up from $25.73; 2026 jumped to $28.72 from $28.39

Morgan Stanley MS: 2025 is now at $8.92, up from $8.67; 2026 climbed to $9.59 from $9.35

ServiceNow NOW: 2025 is now at $16.84, up from $16.58; 2026 is reset at $20.01 from $19.85

Nvidia: While 2025 is unchanged at $4.32, 2026 has been increased to $5.84 from $5.76

United Rentals: 2025 has been increased to $43.41 from $43.22, while 2026 remains unchanged at $47.79

Refreshed Panic Points

Eaton: Raised to $325 from $290

Nvidia: Raised to $130 from $125

Palantir: Raised to $115 from $110

United Rentals: Raised to $680 from $650

Revised Pick-Up Points

Meta: $640

Morgan Stanley: $127

Universal Display OLED: $145

Palantir: $137

TJX Companies TJX: $124

United Rentals: $730

Vulcan Materials VMC: $260

Waste Management WM: $225

More Pro Portfolio

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AAPL, MSFT, META, AMZN, AXP, ETN, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, URI, MS, OLED, TJX, VMC and WM.