New American Express Price Target After Surprise Earnings Reaction

We are increasing our American Express AXP price target to $340 from $310, and we are evaluating our current Two rating on the shares given Friday's surprising negative reaction to the company’s June quarter results.

We chalk this up to Amex delivering a June quarter earnings beat but keeping its full-year 2025 guidance intact. We do think the outlook for 2H 2025 could be conservative given trends in average fees per card, which should be nicely higher year over year in 2H 2025. Spending has also held up better than expected, and as we know, consumer spending tends to be skewed to 2H 2025 given multiple holidays.

However, given the highly publicized refresh effort coming for its Platinum card later this year, we could see a lull in new premium additions as folks wait for those new benefit details. If you’re thinking it’s like folks holding off until they see the new iPhone model, we’re right there with you. But as that effort takes hold, we should see net fees per card resume its move higher in 2026 and early 2027, carrying pre-tax income with it.

As we expected, Amex has remained tight-lipped on the refresh effort, but management indicated it is focused on the value proposition with more benefits and offerings. The company has been able to deliver on this in the past, in part because its premium partners want access to its large-scale, high-spending customer base. Year to date, Amex’s average card membership spending was up 2% year over year to more than $12,300, with below industry 30-plus day past due levels.

Earlier this month, we booked some nice gains on AXP shares near $327. We see the subsequent pullback in the shares as a potential opportunity to rebuild the position size on the heels of the June quarter earnings report, confirming our reasons for owning the shares. We also recognize the market is at or near overbought levels once again based depending on whether you are looking at RSI levels for the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq Composite.

This means we’ll want to be patient and pick our spot with AXP shares, and that means we are watching how they fare against their 50-day moving average, which clocks in near $302. As we look at that level, we recognize the next layer of support comes near $288. While we wouldn’t mind picking up AXP shares a few dollars lower from here, our willingness to do so is even greater near that level. The shares closer to that level would also likely trigger a re-think on our current Two rating.

As we get more details are shared for the pending Platinum card refresh, we’ll revisit average fees per card expectations and our new AXP price target.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AXP.