Keeping Our Marvell Price Target and Rating as Wall Street Catches Up
Here are the factors that keep us firmly bullish on the shares.
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Target, Dartboard
On the heels of Marvell Technology's (MRVL) consensus-topping January-quarter results and upsized multi-year outlook, we reiterating our price target and rating on the stock.
That same multi-year outlook is leading others across Wall Street to increase their MRVL price targets to levels near our $140 target. JPMorgan reset its target to $135, Rosenblatt Securities' is now at $140, and Benchmark upgraded its rating to Buy from Hold with a new $130 target.
Even after the post-earnings pop we are seeing in the shares Friday, there is ample upside to our target to maintain our One rating. For folks that are looking to pick up more Marvell stock, we could very well see it give back some of Friday’s double-digit pop, which has likely been helped along by some short-covering. Per Nasdaq, the most recent snapshot of short interest in Marvell on February 13 stood at 32.4 million shares, implying just over two days to cover.
Marvell’s January quarter
Marvell delivered January quarter EPS of $0.80 on revenue that rose 22.1% year over year to $2.22 billion, besting the market consensus. On a sequential basis, net sales climbed 7%, more than double the sequential improvement logged for the October 2025 quarter.
Revenue strength was tied to both AI and data center, with that cluster rising 21% year over year to $1.65 billion. While much emphasis has been put on that business for Marvell, an understandable focus given it drives almost 75% of overall revenue, we should not ignore the 26% year over year revenue increase for the other 25%, also known as Marvell’s Communications and Other segment.
Management’s Multi-Year Outlook
Similar to Broadcom (AVGO) earlier this week, Marvell issued a barn burner of an outlook for its current fiscal 2027. The company is guiding for revenue growth of more than 30%, accelerating to 40% growth, year over year, in fiscal 2028. Putting dollar amounts around those figures pegs Marvell’s fiscal 2027 revenue near $11 billion, ahead of the $10 billion it forecasted in December and the $9.5 billion in September. The strength behind that, much like we saw with Broadcom, is the AI and data center business, from existing chips and networking ones to ramping custom silicon programs.
Layering on that 40% figure for fiscal 2028 puts Marvell’s top line near $15 billion. Included in that fiscal 2028 figure is $250 million in revenue tied to its late 2025 acquisitions of Celestial AI and XConn. Marvell reiterated its longer-term outlook for Celestial AI and for its revenue to hit a $500 million annualized run rate in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2028, doubling to a $1 billion annualized run rate by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2029.
Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s put some context around that near $15 billion revenue figure proffered by Marvell CEO Matthew Murphy. It’s 88% higher than the revenue it delivered for the 12 months ended January 2026. Let that sink in…
And if that has you harkening back to the comments we shared with you yesterday about the expected surge in AI and data center revenue at Broadcom, we’re right there with you. We see both companies benefiting from the significant increase in AI and data center capital spending this year, but most likely elevated levels next year as AI adoption and usage levels continue to climb. Given the focus on cost per watt and capacity constraints at Nvidia (NVDA) , the outlook for AI chips from Alphabet (GOOGL) , Meta (META) , Amazon (AMZN) , and Microsoft (MSFT) remains extremely bright.
That explains the multi-year outlook for both Broadcom and Marvell. And both Broadcom CEO Hock Tan and Marvell’s Murphy have shared over the last few months the collaborative nature of their custom AI silicon chip businesses with their customer programs. That adds another layer of visibility given customer roadmaps that span two to three, and in some cases, four years.
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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long MRVL, AVGO, NVDA, GOOGL, META, AMZN and MSFT.
