How Much of Taiwan Semi's Incredible April Revenue Is a Pull Forward in Demand?
Here's what we can take away from the chipmaker's numbers, how it reflects on several Pro Portfolio holdings, and where we're looking next.
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In an earlier Alert, we addressed Costco’s COST April revenue report, and now we are turning to one from Taiwan Semiconductor TSM. While we do not own TSM shares in the Pro Portfolio, the company’s position as the world’s largest independent chip foundry makes it one to follow, especially since it fabs chips for Apple AAPL, Nvidia NVDA, Qualcomm QCOM, and other Pro Portfolio holdings.
For April, TSM reported its revenue was approximately NT$349.57 billion, a sequential increase of 22.2% compared to March and a far more substantial increase of 48.1% on a year-over-year basis. TSM does not break down its end-market exposure on a monthly basis, but we can infer based on its most recent quarter and reaffirmed capital spending comments from Big Tech for AI and data center, that demand for the company's High Performance Computing segment was robust. And we see that supporting shares of Pro Portfolio positions Nvidia and Marvell Technology MRVL.
We also see that April revenue report supporting June-quarter smartphone market comments from Qualcomm QCOM and Skyworks Solutions SWKS for year-over-year gains, despite the typical low-single-digit seasonal sequential decline. That also brings support for shares of Universal Display OLED, and it suggests that iPhone shipments could be better than expected at the start of the quarter.
What complicates this picture is the uncertainty that stems from tariffs and the potential that some of the April surge was pulled forward demand from May and June. While we would normally view such a monthly revenue report from TSM as very bullish for those holdings we called out above, this time around, we have to tread a bit more carefully when it comes to those figures.
While we wait for TSM to report its May 2025 revenue report in early June, our next step will be to digest comments from companies as they make the May and June investor conference rounds. Some of those include:
- Monday, May 12: Needham Technology, Media, & Consumer 1x1 Conference
- Wednesday, May 14: J.P. Morgan 53rd Annual Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference
- Wednesday, May 28: TD Cowen 53rd Annual TMT Conference
- Tuesday, June 3: Baird 2025 Global Consumer, Technology and Services Conference
- Thursday, June 5: William Blair 45th Annual Growth Stock Conference
At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long COST, AAPL, NVDA, QCOM, MRVL and OLED.
