Here Come the MANGOS: 8 Key Items Shaping the Stock Market Wednesday

These are the early headlines and other items poised to influence the market at the start of trading Wednesday. As we share this collection of market drivers, U.S. equity futures point to a positive start to the trading day.  

1. Stocks were on track to rise Wednesday after more details about the U.S.-Iran peace deal leaked, bolstering hopes that the two countries are on the brink of reaching an agreement to end the war in the Middle East. (Barron’s)

Bloomberg has published the 14-point draft memorandum between the U.S. and Iran, which outlines a 60-day period for negotiations, during which the U.S. will lift its naval blockade, and Iran will resume the movement of merchant ships. The agreement also includes provisions for the U.S. to end sanctions against Iran, provide financing for Iran’s economic development, and establish a mechanism to oversee the implementation of the final agreement. Other reports indicate that parts of the published 14 points are “inaccurate” but no clarification on which parts. You can read Bloomberg’s article on the draft points here. 

We would not be shocked to learn of last-minute changes to the wording, but the expectation is the U.S. and Iran will formally sign the memorandum on June 19 in Switzerland. Today, however, at the G7 conference, President Trump said that the U.S. will “go right back to dropping bombs” if he doesn’t like the deal. 

2. Investors around the world are flocking back to the US dollar in a bet that the AI boom will help the world’s biggest economy to outshine its peers this year and force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high. Wagers on a stronger dollar in the futures market last week rose by the most since 2018 to their highest level in more than a year, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a jump JPMorgan analysts attributed to investors’ renewed belief in “US exceptionalism”. (FT)

Helping bolster the dollar is the change in how investors are viewing the U.S. economy. Earlier this year, concerns centered on the labor market and potential rate cuts. Recent job reports have painted a different picture, the Fed isn’t expected to deliver a rate cut any time soon, and now oil prices are expected to move lower in the coming months, eventually easing some inflation pressures. Let’s remember, however, that a strong dollar is a headwind for multinational companies. On the bright side, it is beneficial for American tourists traveling abroad, and that adds to our bullish stance on American Express (AXP).

3. Oil prices were continuing to fall early Wednesday as markets look ahead to the prospect of a U.S.-Iran peace deal being signed this week. Goldman Sachs analysts have reduced their expectations for crude prices for the rest of the year. Goldman Sachs analysts now forecast Brent will average $85 a barrel this year and West Texas Intermediate $80 a barrel, down from prior estimates of $90 and $85, respectively. For next year, Goldman sees Brent at $75 a barrel and WTI at $70. (Barron’s)

On its face, that sounds pretty good and something that should lead to lower gas prices. However, when we look at the chart of WTI below, that $70 forecast in 2027 is still above $55 to $65 range we saw in H2 2025 to early 2026. That could just be Goldman taking a conservative stance, given the expectation that exports and production from the Gulf will see a gradual recovery, as well as the need to rebuild inventories. The IEA offers a more optimistic view, projecting that the oil market will move into a significant supply overhang next year. That view hinges on the global supply of oil rising by 8 million barrels per day (BPD)pd while demand rises by just 2 million BPD. 

4. The Federal Reserve’s policymaking arm will wrap up its two-day meeting and then deliver the latest interest rate decision and summary of economic projections at 2 p.m. Eastern. It’s widely expected that the Federal Open Market Committee will vote to keep the benchmark federal funds rate target unchanged at a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. But markets will be parsing the central bank’s statement and economic forecast for signals on whether rate hikes are still on the table now that hostilities in the Middle East are set to fade. (Barron’s)

The Kevin Warsh era is here as the new Fed Chair makes his debut. As we parse his presser comments, noting his language and tone, we’ll be watching the dots in the updated Set of Economic Projections (SEP). And while the focus will be on Warsh, let’s remember Fed policy is decided by committee, one that includes former Fed Chair Powell.

In the Fed’s more recent SEP iteration published in March, the dot plot pegged GDP for this year and next at 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. PCE Inflation for this year was at 2.7%, falling to 2.2% in 2027, with the same figures for core PCE inflation. Exiting 2026, the Fed funds rate was projected to be at 3.4%, in line with where it is today, with one 25-basis point increase flagged for 2027. More on that, March 2026 SEP can be found here. 

5. Wall Street has a new way to market the AI trade: Take the shares of companies that investors most want to own, including some they still cannot buy, and turn them into an acronym. It is no secret that stock-market investors love acronyms. During the 2010s, the hottest tech trade was the so-called FAANG names — Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google. More recently, members of the “Magnificent Seven” have helped to power this AI-driven bull market. In late 2024, the so-called “BATMANN” stocks swooped to the market’s rescue. (MarketWatch)

FAANG, Mag 7, and other acronyms have tried to capture the group of stocks leading the market. Following the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO and pending ones for Anthropic and OpenAI, the next generation of high-profile tech companies, now that some Mag7 companies have “lost their luster,” is the MANGOS:

6. Lionsgate shares jumped nearly 14% on Tuesday following a report by Semafor that Netflix is one of a number of media companies interested in a potential acquisition of the Hollywood studio. But a spokesperson for the streamer is disputing the outlet’s reporting, telling TheWrap it is “not interested” and has no plans to pursue an acquisition. (The Wrap)

Upon hearing the market chatter that Netflix (NFLX) might be interested in Lionsgate (LION), we shared our initial thoughts for a potential tie-up with Pro members. We also indicated that “If this turns out to be more smoke and mirrors, with Netflix walking away from a deal, that will give us a reason to take advantage of the incremental pullback we are seeing in the stock.” 

7. Economic data today per TipRanks: MBA Mortgage Application Index (Weekly), Retail Sales (May), Business Inventories (April), Pending Home Sales (May), EIA Crude Oil Stocks (Weekly), Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Press Conference.    

8. Companies reporting today per TipRanks: AM – CarMax (KMX), Jabil (JBL). PM – Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI). 

At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro was long AXP and NFLX.