D.C. Poised for Another Shutdown Showdown as Earnings Season Ramps Up
We’ll keep our focus even as the deal only funds the government for a few months.
You're reading 0 of 1 free page.
Register to read more or Unlock Pro — 50% Off Ends Soon
After 43 days, the longest-running government shutdown is over, and the passed spending package funds the federal government through… wait for it… January 30, 2026.
In other words, less than three months, and this likely sets up another showdown of sorts just as we are getting into the thick of the December quarter earnings season. And yes, that is the same earnings season during which companies tend to share their first formal outlook for the coming year.
What we can look forward to between now and then is a vote on Affordable Care Act subsidies, which is targeted for mid-December. We’ve talked about rising healthcare costs and the dent it has placed in consumer spending. We’ll want to follow this carefully to see what the incremental impact could be in the quarters ahead, but odds are that we aren’t going to see any dramatic cuts to healthcare costs.
Here's the thing: the shutdown is over, but it is going to take some time for things to ramp back up, and for furloughed workers to receive back pay. Economic data will need to be collected, tabulated and possibly reported, while other parts of the government dig out and get caught up from the shutdown. Think of all the things you had to do when you returned from a week’s vacation and multiply that by a factor of six.
Given the comment above about how this three-month deal essentially kicks the can down the road for a small period, it means there will be uncertainty in the air, especially as we get closer to the November and December holidays. Looking at the 2025 session calendar, both chambers of Congress are only in session together for about 16 more days this year. That reinforces our thinking that things will come to a head in January.
We can’t manage that, but when it comes to the Portfolio, we will focus on what we can, and that means business as usual for us. We still have a few Portfolio constituents yet to report their quarterly results, the investor conference season is picking back up, pieces of data should start to appear, and we should see a pick-up in consumer spending near term.
Yeah, the government deal kicks the can down the road, but as we saw over the last 43 days, the stock market marched on. We’ll adapt as needed, but we’ll continue to keep our focus and position the Portfolio for the medium to longer-term.
