Checking on Portfolio Dividends, Bracing for Big Jobs Revision

While we wait for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to release revised jobs figures for the 12 months ended March 2025, let’s take a moment and tally the upcoming quarterly dividend payments the Portfolio will collect between now and the end of the current quarter. Barring any unexpected dividend announcements or increases, which are unlikely, here’s a list of companies, their upcoming dividend payments, and the corresponding payment dates:

Labcorp LH - $0.72 per share on September 11

Microsoft MSFT - $0.83 per share on September 11

Alphabet GOOGL - $0.21 per share on September 15

Qualcomm QCOM - $0.89 per share on September 25

Waste Management WM - $0.825 per share on September 26

Universal Display OLED - $0.45 per share on September 30.

When we take pencil to paper, over the next few weeks, those payments will lead us to credit the Portfolio’s cash position by around $3,330. If we add in the Sept. 3 payout date for the $0.49 per share quarterly dividend payment from Vulcan Materials VMC, that figure climbs to more than $3,600.

As we tally those figures, we’ll note two things. First, that $0.83 per share quarterly dividend from Microsoft is the fourth one at that level. Given Microsoft’s penchant for lifting its dividend and noting the timing of those announcements, the company could announce its next potential dividend increase in the coming weeks. While the dividend yield on MSFT shares is modest and will likely remain that way even after the company’s expected next increase, we’re more than happy to collect the cash and put it to work elsewhere in the Portfolio.

Second, in addition to collecting dividends from those companies again in the final quarter of the year, we’ll also get ones from Nvidia NVDA, United Rentals URI, Eaton ETN, Costco COST, Morgan Stanley MS, Apple AAPL, American Express AXP, Marvell MRVL, and SuRo Capital SSSS. And we continue to think we are likely to see an additional special dividend from SuRo before year-end as it looks to preserve its BDC status.

About Those Job Revisions

Economists at Goldman Sachs GS, J.P. Morgan JPM, Nomura Securities, and Royal Bank of Canada expect the BLS to mark down net job gains by as much as 900,000 on an annual basis, or by about 75,000 a month, on average. A restatement of that magnitude would shift the average monthly jobs gained to around 74,000 jobs, roughly half the average monthly gain of 149,000 jobs currently reported. It also means that, like we saw with the latest revision for June, some months could be revised with negative figures.

As we discussed in Friday’s Weekly Roundup, the magnitude of these revisions and how they reframe the jobs market could tip the expectation scales even further for a rate cut next week by the Fed. This morning, the CME FedWatch tool still shows the market expecting that cut as well as two more in the balance of the year. If the revised figure is more dire than expected, we could see market expectations for a larger, half-percentage-point rate cut rise. Currently, that probability is less than 8% vs. 92% for a quarter-point rate cut next week.

While the market will focus on those revisions today, let’s remember that the Fed has a dual mandate, and that means we will want to measure these revisions against the findings of the August consumer price index and producer price index reports that are out over the next two days. With no Fed speakers given the current pre-policy meeting blackout, we’ll want to have all the data so we can prepare ourselves accordingly and the Portfolio as well.

Yesterday, we examined what we’re watching for a potential housing play, and we have another we’re working on as we get ready for next week’s Fed outcome.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long LH, MSFT, GOOGL, QCOM, WM, OLED, VMC, NVDA, URI, ETN, COST, MS, AAPL, AXP, MRVL SSSS.