Boosting Our Price Target for This Public Safety Play as Trump Signals Support

Coming off Axon Enterprise’s AXON beat-and-raise March quarter, we increased our target price to $700 but shared our intention to review that level again as company management presented at several investor conferences.

Coming off this week’s presentation at the JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference, we are once again lifting our target price for AXON shares, putting it at $750.

We expected more color to emerge about trends driving the company’s business, and President Josh Isner did not disappoint. Isner reiterated the company isn’t seeing any real impact from DOGE cuts, but instead sees opportunities to grow its federal-facing business, especially with AI. He also discussed the large body camera and related software and services order booked in the December quarter with a “large logistics company” as a way to explain adoption outside of the public safety market.

We recognize that retailer shrinkage is a pain point, so much so that even Target TGT recently announced it is pulling back on self-checkout due to that issue. As we’ve discussed many times before, pain points cry out for solutions, and we look forward to hearing more about retail and enterprise wins from Axon.

During his time on the stage, Isner also commented that the Trump administration appears supportive of state and local law funding of public safety spending, a positive for Axon’s business. Isner reiterated that the second half of 2025 should see a pickup in AI-related business, explaining how that timing relates to the timing for new public safety budgets. Other key markets like Florida, Texas and the federal government turn to new budgets on October 1.

Isner also reviewed the company’s current AI offering that includes a real-time translator so a body camera can translate over 100 languages and tools that utilize body-worn camera audio to produce high-quality draft report narratives in seconds, help consolidate all case evidence into one simple report for a prosecutor or fill out local custom police forms that city or state police may require on top of just the police report. Like we are seeing with AI adoption in the enterprise, this is geared around driving police productivity by reducing time spent on report generation and increasing active uptime.

As we move through Axon’s other upcoming investor conference presentations in the coming weeks, we’ll revisit our new price target. Announced AI program wins will be another catalyst for us to revisit that target as well. We see that AI offering as a natural building block to Axon’s body camera and cloud/software businesses, and one that should drive favorable margin and pricing dynamics in the coming quarters.

Near-term, however, with the relative strength index (RSI) topping 76 today, given the upside to our new $750 target, we reiterate our Two rating on AXON shares. Noting a few gaps in the chart, for now, we’ll keep our panic point at $560 but call out some nice support in the shares between $579 and $591.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long AXON.