Big Tech Names Should See Boost After Record $10 Billion Election Projection

While it may seem a tad simplistic, one of the more effective strategies we’ve employed in managing the Portfolio is to follow the money.

Whether it’s enterprises, consumers or governments that are spending, identifying what they are spending on and which company or group of companies are poised to benefit has been a successful strategy. With that in mind, we are reading that, given the current political environment and what could be a contentious mid-term election season, political advertising during the 2025 to 2026 mid-term season is expected to reach $10.8 billion, a new record. For context, $11.2 billion was spent for the 2024 presidential cycle per data from AdImpact, and $8.9 billion was spent during the 2021-2022 mid-term cycle.

As you probably know, control of Congress between the Republicans and the Democrats comes down to the Republicans’ 53 to 47 majority in the Senate and their 219 to 212 majority in the House. If Republicans lost control of either chamber in 2026, the legislative phase of Donald Trump’s second term would become even more challenging unless he and the Democrats struck what now appears to be an unlikely bipartisanship.

Odds are that this means we are looking at a charged election and one that has already begun. AdImpact finds that roughly $900 million was already spent this year through August 26, compared to typical spending amounts of 10% to 15% of total spending in other off-years. Similar to that finding, the following context should help frame that $900 million figure: it’s up 37% compared to the same point in 2023 and 58% higher than in 2021.

That assessment suggests we could see overall mid-term political spending come in ahead of AdImpact’s current forecast. The more contentious the race, the more likely that could be.

Where Is This Spending Expected to Take Place?

Per AdImpact, it is connected TV or CTV, which offers advertisers maximum reach and flexibility.

Broadcast TV is expected to remain steady, with CTV’s gains coming from cable and social media. We previously discussed how streaming TV is now larger than broadcast and cable, and how YouTube's leading position in streaming is a positive for Google GOOGL. We also noted how Amazon AMZN has picked up share with Prime Video while Netflix NFLX has done the same.

And while it isn’t a CTV play, during its June quarter earnings call, Meta META discussed the continued momentum it is seeing with video engagement. During the quarter, Instagram video time was up 20% year-over-year globally, and Facebook video time was up substantially as well. Meta also shared that nearly 2 million advertisers were using its video generation features, image animation and video expansion.

With the Portfolio’s positions in GOOGL, AMZN, and META, we are well-positioned to capture the benefits of the higher spending. But as you probably saw, not too long ago, we added shares of digital advertising company The Trade Desk TTD to the Bullpen.

One of the issues that we said we would need to become comfortable with is Trade Desk’s competitive position, given rumblings that Walmart WMT was no longer an exclusive customer. It appears that more details on the Trade Desk-Walmart relationship are seeping out.

Following Stifel’s 2025 Tech Executive Summit, the firm said it learned that Trade Desk remains the sole demand-side platform for Walmart in the U.S., and that Mexico was the only region to change the exclusivity clause. That’s an interesting clarification and one that will lead us to keep a close watch on TTD shares as we navigate near-term market-facing issues.

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At the time of publication, TheStreet Pro Portfolio was long GOOGL, AMZN and META.